The weekend after Christmas offers three new films that opened Tuesday the 25th and a critical darling that went semi-wide on that day. Les Miserables and Django Unchained are turning around the 2012 holiday season, while the other two new films are making little impact.
Now playing at 2,808 theaters, Les Miserables from Universal opened with $18.1 million Tuesday and should take in over $50 million in the traditional Friday-Sunday period, averaging $17,900 per theater for the weekend. [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are moderately positive (the film has a 73% positive rating at RottenTomatoes) — read Mitch Salem’s recommendation here. But the wide fanbase for this musical should keep the film going. Les Miserables should total almost $100 million through Sunday and should finish with $230 million domestic.
Now playing at 3,010 theaters, Django Unchained from Weinstein Company and writer-director Quentin Tarantino opened with $15 million Tuesday and should gross $40 million this weekend, averaging $13,500 per theater. Critics are very positive (currently 89% positive rating at RottenTomatoes) — read Mitch Salem’s take here. Django Unchained should total about $80 million through Sunday and should end up with $195 million domestic.
Now playing at 3,558 theaters, Parental Guidance from 2oth Century Fox opened with $6.3 million Tuesday and should gross about $13 million this weekend, averaging only $3,700 per theater Friday-Sunday. Critics think its sucks (18% positive for a Billy Crystal-Bette Midler combination — unbelievable). Mitch Salem joins the critical drubbing of the film here. The film should total about $29 million through Sunday and struggle to get to $60 million domestic.
Expanding to 745 theaters Tuesday, Silver Linings Playbook from Weinstein Company should average a weak $4,000 per theater (for a $3 million Friday-Sunday). Critics love it (over 90% positive), but mass audiences don’t know what to make of it. Only $1 million Christmas Day. Silver Linings Playbook will keep playing because of award nominations and critical support, but it struggle to break out. The film should total $26 million through Sunday and will fight to get to $65 million domestic with the help of nominations.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND December 28-30, 2012 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||||
| Tue Dec 25 actual | Wed Dec 26 est | Thu Dec 27 est | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Les Miserables | Uni | PG13 | 73% | 18.1 | 15 | 16 | 50.5 | 230 | |
| Django Unchained | Weins | R | 89% | 15.0 | 11 | 13 | 40.5 | 195 | |
| Parental Guidance | Fox | PG | 18% | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 13.0 | 60 | |
| Silver Linings Playbook | Weins | R | 91% | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 3.0 | 65 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Some unusual weekend-to-weekend plus signs because of the heavy business between Christmas and New Year’s Day.
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RETURNING FILMS December 28-30, 2012 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey | WB | -13% | 32.3 | 285 | |
| Jack Reacher | Par | -15% | 13.3 | 90 | |
| This Is 40 | Uni | +10% | 12.7 | 75 | |
| Lincoln | Dis | +18% | 6.5 | 145 | |
| Monsters, Inc. 3D | Dis | +26% | 6.0 | 60 | |
| The Guilt Trip | Par | +8% | 5.8 | 50 | |
| Rise of the Guardians | Par/DW | -20% | 4.7 | 105 | |
| Skyfall | Sony | -31% | 4.5 | 290 | |
| Life of Pi | Fox | +7% | 4.3 | 95 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $157 million total, ranking 10th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $140 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $149 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $152 million, down a small 3% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years but up 9% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
no releases in comparable weekends last two years
Check back throughout the week and weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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