February 23, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #8 of 2013 is another bad one: $86 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday (down 25% from the same weekend last year and down 15% from the average for the weekend the last few years).  Identity Thief will hold on to the #1 spot for the weekend (but only at $13.4 million).        

Opening at 2,511 theaters Friday, Snitch from Summit and starring the unlikely combination of  The Rock and Susan Sarandon grossed $4.1 Friday and is on track for a $12 million opening weekend (down a touch from the $13.7 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The film is averaging $4,800 per theater for the weekend (slightly below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years).  Critics are mixed: 53% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Snitch should finish with $40 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,313 theaters, Dark Skies from Weinstein/Dimension grossed $3.1 million Friday and is on track for an $8.5 million opening weekend (below the already soft $10.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast).   The film is averaging a bad $3,700 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is a weak 38% positive.  Dark Skies is headed for maybe $15 million total domestic. 

Weekend 8: February 22-24, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Identity Thief Uni [13.3] 13.4 4.06 132
Snitch Summit [13.7] 12.0 4.14 40
Safe Haven Rel [10.6] 10.9 3.51 72
Escape from Planet Earth Weins [10.6] 10.4 2.39 60
A Good Day to Die Hard Fox [12.0] 9.2 2.84 69
Dark Skies Weins [10.8] 8.5 3.09 15
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [5.2] 4.6  1.57 120
Warm Bodies Summit [5.3] 3.4  1.45 70
Side Effects OpenRoad [3.5] 3.2 1.00 37
Beautiful Creatures WB [3.9] 2.2 1.05 23

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $86 million total Friday-Sunday, down 15% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 25% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #8 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $86 Snitch $12, Dark Skies $8.5
2012 $114 Act of Valor $24, Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds $15, Wanderlust $6, Gone $4
2011 $96 Hall Pass $13, Drive Angry 3D $5
2010 $107 Cop Out $18, The Crazies $16
2009 $87 Jonas Brothers: 3D Concert Experience $12, Street Fighter $4
Avg 2009-12 $101

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.