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The second weekend of 2012 looks better than we forecast (Contraband and Beauty and the Beast 3D are ahead of the ShowBuzzDaily weekend predictions), but the weekend is still looking pretty soft. The top 12 films should total about $113 million, down 2% from the same weekend last year (which was pretty bad). More important, this weekend is down 21% from the average comparable weekend over the past several years.
Contraband is opening better than forecast, pulling in almost $9 million Friday and an estimated $24 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $16.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast. Contraband is headed for a preliminary $70 million total domestic.
Beauty and the Beast 3D is also exceeding our prediction: opening with almost $6 million Friday on its way to almost $19 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14 million prediction. The 3D re-issue is headed for $87 million total domestic.
Joyful Noise is more in line with our expectations: over $3 million Friday and almost $11 million this weekend, just under the $12 million forecast.
The Devil Inside looks to be down 77% Friday-Sunday compared to the opening weekend, and we have taken down the exorcism film down to $55 million total estimated domestic.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions
January 13-15, 2012 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Contraband (Uni) [$16.5] $24.1 $ 8.7 $ 70
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis) [$14.0] $18.8 $ 5.6 $ 87
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$11.5] $11.4 $ 3.3 $223
Joyful Noise (WB) [$12.0] $10.7 $ 3.3 $ 31
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$11.5] $ 8.3 $ 2.4 $190
The Devil Inside (Par) [$ 9.0] $ 7.7 $ 2.7 $ 55
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ 7.5] $ 6.2 $ 1.9 $109
War Horse (DW/Dis) [$ 5.0] $ 6.0 $ 1.6 $ 87
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) [$ 5.0] $ 5.6 $ 1.4 $ 81
Iron Lady (Wein) [$ 3.5] $ 5.4 $ 1.6 $ 20
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 (Fox)[$ 6.0] $ 5.2 $ 1.2 $126
Adventures Tintin (Par) [$ 4.5] $ 3.5 $ 0.8 $ 80
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $113 million total Friday-Sunday, down 2% from the same calendar weekend last year and down a more significant 21% from the typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #2
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012 $113 Contraband $24, Beauty Beast 3D $19, Joyful Noise $112011 $115 Green Hornet $33.5, The Dilemma $18 2010 $157 Book of Eli $33, Lovely Bones $17, Spy Next Door $10
2009 $165 Paul Blart $32, My Bloody Valentine $21 Notorious $202008 $132 Cloverfield $40, 27 Dresses $23, Mad Money $8
2008-11
Avg $142
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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