January 4, 2014

FRIDAY JANUARY 3 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, the first weekend of 2014 looks like $138 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up about 10% from similar weekends the past few years.  

Opening at 2,867 theaters Friday, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones from Paramount grossed $6.8 million Friday, putting the fifth in the franchise on track for an $18.1 million opening three-day weekend (near our $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,300 per theater for the weekend (somewhat above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mediocre among the relatively low number of reviews (45% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 50% positive with top critics). PA: The Marked Ones is headed for $47 million total domestic, below the $53.9 million domestic for Paranormal Activity 4 (which opened October 19-21, 2012 to $29.0 million) and nowhere near the domestic totals for the more successful first three in the franchise: PA $107.9 million in September 2009, PA 2 $84.7 million in October 2010 and PA 3 $104.0 million in October 2011.

Frozen 3D continues to impress — above our weekend forecast, still #1 for the weekend, and upgraded to $360 million total domestic.  The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug is now on track for $275 million domestic.  Other adjusted domestic totals include: Anchorman 2 ($148 million), American Hustle ($134 million) and The Wolf of Wall Street ($117 million).

Weekend 1: January 3-5, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Frozen 3D Dis [20.2] 23.7 6.8 360
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Par [17.5] 18.1 8.7 47
The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug WB [16.7] 17.1 5.1 275
The Wolf of Wall Street Par [11.0] 13.9 4.3 117
American Hustle Sony [11.8] 13.1 4.1 134
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues Par [11.8] 11.3 3.9 148
Saving Mr. Banks Dis [9.4] 9.1 2.9 92
Secret Life of Walter Mitty Fox [8.2] 8.8 2.8 80
Hunger Games: Catching Fire LG/Sum [6.5] 7.8 2.5 431
Grudge Match WB [4.5] 5.6 1.8 49
47 Ronin Uni [5.2] 5.0 1.6 53
Walking with Dinosaurs Fox [4.8] 4.2 1.3 40

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $138 million total Friday-Sunday, up 10% from the four-year average for the same weekend and up 11% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 1 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $138 Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones $18.1
2013 $124 Texas Chainsaw 3D $21.7, Promised Land $4.0
2012 $126 The Devil Inside $33.7
2011 $99 Season of the Witch $10.6, Country Strong $7.3
2010 $149 Daybreakers $15.1, Leap Year $9.2
Avg 2009-13 $125

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.