Based on Friday’s grosses, the first weekend of 2014 looks like $138 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up about 10% from similar weekends the past few years.
Opening at 2,867 theaters Friday, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones from Paramount grossed $6.8 million Friday, putting the fifth in the franchise on track for an $18.1 million opening three-day weekend (near our $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $6,300 per theater for the weekend (somewhat above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mediocre among the relatively low number of reviews (45% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 50% positive with top critics). PA: The Marked Ones is headed for $47 million total domestic, below the $53.9 million domestic for Paranormal Activity 4 (which opened October 19-21, 2012 to $29.0 million) and nowhere near the domestic totals for the more successful first three in the franchise: PA $107.9 million in September 2009, PA 2 $84.7 million in October 2010 and PA 3 $104.0 million in October 2011.
Frozen 3D continues to impress — above our weekend forecast, still #1 for the weekend, and upgraded to $360 million total domestic. The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug is now on track for $275 million domestic. Other adjusted domestic totals include: Anchorman 2 ($148 million), American Hustle ($134 million) and The Wolf of Wall Street ($117 million).
| Weekend 1: January 3-5, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Frozen 3D | Dis | [20.2] | 23.7 | 6.8 | 360 | |
| Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones | Par | [17.5] | 18.1 | 8.7 | 47 | |
| The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug | WB | [16.7] | 17.1 | 5.1 | 275 | |
| The Wolf of Wall Street | Par | [11.0] | 13.9 | 4.3 | 117 | |
| American Hustle | Sony | [11.8] | 13.1 | 4.1 | 134 | |
| Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues | Par | [11.8] | 11.3 | 3.9 | 148 | |
| Saving Mr. Banks | Dis | [9.4] | 9.1 | 2.9 | 92 | |
| Secret Life of Walter Mitty | Fox | [8.2] | 8.8 | 2.8 | 80 | |
| Hunger Games: Catching Fire | LG/Sum | [6.5] | 7.8 | 2.5 | 431 | |
| Grudge Match | WB | [4.5] | 5.6 | 1.8 | 49 | |
| 47 Ronin | Uni | [5.2] | 5.0 | 1.6 | 53 | |
| Walking with Dinosaurs | Fox | [4.8] | 4.2 | 1.3 | 40 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $138 million total Friday-Sunday, up 10% from the four-year average for the same weekend and up 11% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 1 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $138 | Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones $18.1 | |
| 2013 | $124 | Texas Chainsaw 3D $21.7, Promised Land $4.0 | |
| 2012 | $126 | The Devil Inside $33.7 | |
| 2011 | $99 | Season of the Witch $10.6, Country Strong $7.3 | |
| 2010 | $149 | Daybreakers $15.1, Leap Year $9.2 | |
| Avg 2009-13 | $125 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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