October 26, 2013

FRIDAY OCTOBER 25 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #43 of 2013 looks like $96 million for the top 12 films, less than forecast but still up 12% to 18% from the same weekend in recent years.

Opening at 3,336 theaters Friday, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa from Paramount grossed $12.6 million Friday and is on track for a $30.0 million opening weekend (almost exactly the $30.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,900 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is just moderate (62% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 55% positive with top critics). Bad Grandpa is headed for $80 million total domestic, below the $117.2 million total domestic for Jackass 3-D (October 2010) but above the $72.8 million for Jackass: Number Two (September 2006) and the $64.4 million for Jackass: The Movie (October 2002).

Opening at 3,044 theaters Friday, The Counselor from Twentieth Century Fox grossed $3.2 million Friday and is pacing toward a $9.0 million opening weekend (below our $13.5 million forecast). The film is headed for a bad three-day average of $2,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (36% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 22% positive with top critics). The Counselor is headed for perhaps $20 million total domestic.

Gravity has started to stabilize at $260 million total domestic, and Captain Phillips is locking in at around $103 million domestic.

Weekend 43: October 25-27, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa Par [30.5] 30.0 12.6 80
Gravity WB [21.5] 21.0 6.2 260
Captain Phillips Sony [11.6] 12.0 3.6 103
The Counselor Fox [13.5] 9.0 3.2 20
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2  Sony [6.2] 6.3 1.6 116
Carrie Sony [8.2] 6.0 1.9 36
Escape Plan LG/Sum [4.9] 4.3 n/a 26
12 Years a Slave Fox S [2.9] 2.1 .62 n/a
Enough Said Fox S [1.5] 1.6 .46 n/a
Prisoners WB [1.2] 1.1 .31 62

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $96 million total Friday-Sunday, less than forecast but still up 12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 18% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 43 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $96 Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa $30.0, The Counselor $9.0
2012 $81 Cloud Atlas $9.6, Silent Hill: Revolution 3D $8.0, Fun Size $4.0
2011 $94 Puss in Boots $34.1, In Time $12.1, The Rum Diary $5.1
2010 $85 Saw 3D $22.5
2009 $83 Michael Jackson’s This Is It $23.2
Avg 2009-12 $86

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.