June 23, 2012


Not the disaster we expected, the 25th weekend of 2012 is looking like $158 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 7% from this weekend last year and down 10% from a more normal third weekend in June.  Brave is on track to open solidly (about $7 million more than forecast for the weekend), and Madagascar continues to play well.  However, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter was as weak as we expected, and Seeking a Friend for the End of the World was barely noticed.      

Brave from Disney/ Pixar opened with $24.5 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $66.2 million opening weekend, slightly exceeding the $59.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $15,900 for the weekend at 4,164  theaters.  Brave is headed for a preliminary $217 million in North America, on a similar trajectory to Wall-E ($63.1 million opening and a $223.8 million domestic gross).  The high-end for Pixar movies remains $415.0 million for Toy Story 3 and $339.7 million for Finding Nemo, while the lows are Cars 2 at $191.4 million and A Bug’s Life at $162.8 million.  RottenTomatoes reviews are holding at 74% positive (mediocre for a Pixar film), and you can read Mitch Salem’s full review here.  A complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter from 20th Century Fox opened with $6.3 million Friday and is headed for a $15.8 million opening weekend, slightly below the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.   Playing at 3,108 theaters, the film should average $5,100 per theater.   Abe is headed for a preliminary $39 million domestic gross.  The RottenTomatoes average for the film is now 38% positive.

Seeking a Friend for the End of the World from Focus/ Universal opened with a very weak $1.3 million Friday and is headed for only $3.5 million this weekend, well below the $7.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The Steve Carell comedy-drama should average a lame $2,150 this weekend at 1,625 theaters.  Seeking a Friend is on pace for maybe $13 million domestic.  Reviews at RottenTomatoes have sunk to 54% positive — read Mitch Salem’s review here.

In its second weekend, Rock of Ages is doing about as we forecast, and its final gross estimate has been increased a touch to $47 million.  That’s My Boy is exceeding our bearish second weekend forecast — its final gross estimate has been raised significantly to $45 million.  But the big winner continues to be Madagascar 3, on track to clear $20 million in its third weekend and now on track for $224 million domestic (up from last week’s $209 million estimate).

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 25: June 22-24, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Brave Dis Pixar [59.5] 66.2 24.5 217
Madagascar 3 Par DW [17.3] 20.5 6.1 224
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox [16.5] 15.8 6.3 39
Prometheus Fox [9.9] 9.6 2.9 135
Rock of Ages WB [7.7] 7.9 2.5 47
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni [7.6] 7.8 2.5 157
That’s My Boy Sony [6.7] 7.8 2.4 45
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis [6.5] 7.4 2.1 610
Men in Black 3 Sony [6.0] 5.6 1.7 183
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Foc Uni [7.8] 3.5 1.3 13

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $158 million total Friday-Sunday, better than we forecast Wednesday but still down 7% from the same calendar weekend last year and down 10% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #25 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $158 Brave $66, Abe Lincoln Vampire Hunter $16
2011 $170 Cars 2 $66, Bad Teacher $32
2010 $157 Grown Ups $41, Knight & Day $20
2009 $193 Transformers Revenge of the Fallen $109, My Sister’s Keeper $12
2008 $180 Wall-E $63, Wanted $51
Avg 2008-11 $175

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.