June 30, 2012

FRIDAY JUNE 29 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Very Solid Weekend, After All

MUCH stronger than we forecast, the 26th weekend of 2012 is looking like $196 million for the Top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up only 2% from this weekend last year but up 15% from the multi-year average for this weekend.  R-rated comedy is just what the audience wanted.  Family Guy creator Seth McFarlane struck gold with Ted — an opening weekend over $50 million.  And Magic Mike is on track for an opening of over $40 million.       

Ted from Universal opened with $20.2 million Friday and is headed for an estimated $51.4 million opening weekend, absolutely smashing the $25.7 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $15,900 for the weekend at 3,239  theaters.  Ted is headed for a preliminary $162 million in North America.  RottenTomatoes reviews are now at 69% positive, suggesting limited legs for Ted, but we shall see next weekend.  A complete international revenue update for this and all other films in wide release late Sunday.

Magic Mike from Warner Brothers opened with $19.1 million Friday and is headed for a $41.0 million opening weekend, well ahead of the $29.7 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.   Playing at 2,930 theaters, the film should average $13,900 per theater.   Magic Mike is headed for a preliminary $135 million domestic gross.  The RottenTomatoes average for the film is now a very good 80% positive.

Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection from Lionsgate opened with $10.2 million Friday and is headed for $28.6 million this weekend, fairly close to the $24.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The comedy should average $13,200 this weekend at 2,161 theaters.  Witness Protection is on pace for $89 million domestic, giving it a shot at breaking the current record for a Madea film ($90.5 million for Madea Goes to Jail in February 2009).  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are now 25% positive, not unexpected for a Tyler Perry film — especially one with him dressed as Madea.  (Madea Goes to Jail received 27% positive reviews).

People Like Us from Disney opened with only $1.5 million Friday and is on pace for a $4.0 million opening weekend, even lower than our bearish $4.9 million forecast.  The film should average $1,900 this weekend at 2,055 theaters.  Critics reviews have declined somewhat to 55% positive.

In its second weekend, Brave is slightly below our forecast but still a potent force at the box office.  Madagascar 3, in its fourth weekend, will enjoy what will probably be its last weekend over $10 million.  No significant changes to the Domestic Final Projection for either 3D animated film, however: Madagascar 3 ($220 million) and Brave ($218 million).

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s unusually inaccurate Weekend Predictions.

Weekend 26: June 29-July 1, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Ted Uni [25.7] 51.4 20.2 162
Magic Mike WB [29.7] 41.0 19.1 135
Brave Pix Dis [34.7] 33.4 10.2 218
TP’s Madea’s Witness Protection LG [24.0] 28.6 10.2 89
Madagascar 3 Par DW [11.3] 11.6 3.6 220
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Fox [6.5] 6.0 1.9 38
Moonrise Kingdom Foc Uni [4.4] 4.6 1.4 n/a
Prometheus Fox [5.1] 4.6 1.3 132
Snow White and the Huntsman Uni [—] 4.3 1.3 158
Marvel’s The Avengers Dis [4.7] 4.0 1.2 610
People Like Us Dis [4.9] 4.0 1.5 15
Men in Black 3 Sony [—] 2.8 0.8 183

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $196 million total Friday-Sunday, much better than we forecast Wednesday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year but more significantly up 15% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #26 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $196 Ted $51, Magic Mike $41, Madea’s Witness Protection $29
2011 $192 Transformers Dark Moon $98, Larry Crowne $13
2010 $181 Twilight Eclipse $65, Last Airbender $40
2009 $156 Ice Age Dawn Dinosaurs $42, Public Enemies $25
2008 $153 Hancock $63
Avg 2008-11 $170

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses, as well as updated international figures later in the day Sunday.  On Monday, we will update the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft, as well.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.