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March 28, 2015
 

FRIDAY 3.27.2015 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #13 of 2015 looks like $150 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, above the norms for this weekend.

Opening at 3,708 theaters Friday, Home from Fox and DreamWorks Animation is on track for a $58.0 million opening three-day weekend (way above our non-believing $28.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $15,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre at best (48% positive overall and a more concerning 37% positive with top critics). Still, as a family animated film, it should play fairly long in theaters.  Home is headed for $190 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,175 theaters Friday, Get Hard from Warner Brothers is on track for a $34.5 million opening three-day weekend (closer to but still slightly above our $29.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent $10,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (33% positive overall and 31% positive with top critics). Get Hard is headed for $107 million total domestic.

Expanding to 1,218 theaters Friday, It Follows from Radius/ TWC is on track for a $4.5 million first wide three-day weekend (somewhat above our $3.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a wobbly $3,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is extremely supportive, especially for a horror film (95% positive overall and 90% positive with top critics). It Follows is headed for $19 million total domestic.

Weekend 13: March 27-29, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Home Fox/DWA [28.0] 58.0 15.6 190
Get Hard WB [29.0] 34.5 12.9 107
Insurgent LG/Sum [23.3] 21.6 6.9 133
Cinderella Dis [20.5] 17.5 4.7 200
It Follows Rad [3.8] 4.5 1.4 19
Kingsman: The Secret Service Fox [3.3] 3.0 .84 130
Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel FoxS [2.4] 2.3 .63 34
Run All Night WB [2.9] 2.2 .63 29
Do You Believe? PureFlix [2.4] 2.1 .65 8
The Gunman OpenRoad [2.5] 2.0 .60 9

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Insurgent is headed for $21.6 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and a touch below our $23.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $133 million.

Cinderella is headed for $17.5 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and somewhat below our $20.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $200 million.

Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $3.0 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and near our $3.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $130 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $150 million total Friday-Sunday, up +15% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +15% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 13 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $150 Home $58.0, Get Hard $34.5, It Follows $4.5
2014 $131 Noah $43.7, Grand Budapest Hotel $8.5, Sabotage $5.3
2013 $140 G.I. Joe Retaliation $40.5, TP’s Temptation $21.6, The Host $10.6
2012 $140 Wrath of the Titans $33.5, Mirror Mirror $18.1
2011 $114 Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Roderick Rules $23.8 Sucker Punch $19.1
Avg 2011-14 $131

Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.