June 1, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #22 of 2013 looks like a decent $154 million for the top 12 films, up around 10% from comparable weekends the past few years.  Generally, box office is lower than we forecast on Wednesday.  Now You See Me is the one film that exceeded our forecast, while the other opener (After Earth) and all of the major holdovers fell below our forecasts.

Opening at 2,925 theaters Friday, Now You See Me from Summit grossed $9.9 million Friday and is on track for a $27.9 million opening weekend (somewhat above the $22.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $9,400 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), and critical sentiment is mediocre at best: 44% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics however a tepid 26% positive). Now You See Me is headed for $79 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,401 theaters Friday, After Earth from Sony opened with $9.7 million Friday and is on track for a $27.3 million opening weekend (below the $36.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $8,000 per theater for the weekend, and critical sentiment is brutal: 12% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics and 11% positive with top critics.  After Earth is headed for a forgettable $65 million total domestic

Weekend 22May 31-June 2, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Fast & Furious 6 Uni [40.0] 35.1 10.5 251
Now You See Me Summit [22.5] 27.9 9.9  79
After Earth Sony [36.5] 27.3 9.7  65
Star Trek Into Darkness Par [19.0] 15.4 4.4 242
Epic Fox [19.1] 15.2 4.1 104
The Hangover Part III WB [15.6] 15.1 5.1 121
Iron Man 3 Dis [10.4] 7.9 2.2 415
Great Gatsby WB [7.3] 6.2 1.9 150

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $154 million total Friday-Sunday, up 8% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 14% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #22 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $154 Now You See Me $27.5, After Earth $27.3
2012 $135 Snow White and the Huntsman $56.2
2011 $154 X-Men: First Class $55.1
2010 $122 Get Him to the Greek $17.6, Killer $15.8, Marmaduke $11.6, Splice $7.4
2009 $161 The Hangover $45.0, Land of the Lost $18.8, My Life in Ruins $3.2
Avg 2009-12 $143

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.