May 29, 2013


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The 22nd weekend of the year is looking like a very good $186 million for the top 12 films, up 30% or more from the same weekend in previous years.   

Opening at over 3,000 theaters Friday (a slightly above average theater count), After Earth from Sony and starring Will and Jaden Smith should average $12,100 per theater for the opening weekend (for a $36.5 million opening).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening weekend of $5,300 per theater.]  No early reviews at RottenTomatoes: the film is being hidden.  After Earth should be on course for $95 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (a theater count just below a touch below the 2,886 average the last two years), Now You See Me from Summit should average $8,000 per theater for the weekend (for a $22.5 million opening).  Similar to After Earth, the film is not being previewed for critics because it is probably awful.  Now You See Me should be on course for $60 million domestic and a relatively quick exit from theaters.



May 31-June 2, 2013

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
After Earth Sony PG13 n/a 36.5 95
Now You See Me Summit PG13 n/a 22.5 60

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fast & Furious 6 should hold on to the #1 spot this weekend, while an impressive six films (two openers and four holdovers) will gross $15 million or more this weekend.


May 31-June 2, 2013

 Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Fast & Furious 6 Uni -59% 40.0 282
Epic Fox -43% 19.1 123
Star Trek Into Darkness Par -49% 19.0 240
The Hangover Part III WB -63% 15.6 141
Iron Man 3 Dis -46% 10.4 414
Great Gatsby WB -46% 7.3 150


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $143 million total, ranking 17th of 52 weeks.  Last year, this weekend’s total was $135 million (while 2011 was $154 million and 2010 was $122 million).  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $186 million, up 30% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 38% from the same weekend last year.      


This Weekend Last Two Years


Snow White and the Huntsman UNI PG13 Charlize Theron Chris Hemsworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $42 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $152 Actual: $155
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $241


X-Men: First Class FOX PG13 James McAvoy Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $68 Actual: $55
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $160 Actual: $146
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $207


Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.