November 3, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Weekend #44 is on pace to almost match the multi-year average for this weekend and exceed the same weekend last year, which was missing an animated family film.  This year Wreck-It Ralph props up the weekend, as Megamind did on this weekend in 2010 and Madagascar 2 did in 2008.  Flight is solid but not spectacular, while Man with the Iron Fists will be a blip in the box office memory.     

Wreck-It Ralph from Disney opened with $13.4 million Friday and is on pace for $47.0 million Friday-Sunday, a bit above the $42.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a $12,500 average at 3,752 theaters (well above the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  With 84% positive reviews now at RottenTomatoes and a strong family base, the film should have better than average playability and finish with around $165 million domestic.

Flight from Paramount opened with $8.2 million Friday and is on track for $23.5 million Friday-Sunday, above the $16.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average a very good $12,400 per theater this weekend at 1,900 theaters.  With a sturdy but not great 77% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes, Flight should leave North American theaters with about $74 million.

The Man with the Iron Fists from Universal struggled with $3.0 million Friday and is on track for $7.6 million Friday-Sunday, hitting the ShowbuzzDaily forecast of $7.2 million.  That’s a very limp $4,100 average at 1,868 theaters.  With a mediocre 55% positive reviews, Man with the Iron Fists should exit relatively quickly with $20 million domestic.

Weekend 44: Nov 2-4, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Wreck-It Ralph Dis [42.0] 47.0 13.4 165
Flight Par [16.8] 23.5 8.17 74
Argo WB [8.9] 9.5 2.98 101
Man with the Iron Fists Uni [7.2] 7.6 3.00 25
Taken 2 Fox [4.7] 5.5 1.80 137
Hotel Transylvania Sony [5.5] 4.2 1.10 149
Cloud Atlas WB [5.2] 4.8 1.50 30
Paranormal Activity 4 Par [3.5] 4.1 1.44 53
Here Comes the Boom Sony [3.3] 3.3 1.00 42
Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Open Road [3.6] 3.1 13

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an okay $118 million total Friday-Sunday, down a small 2% from the average comparable weekend the last four years but up 14% from the same weekend last year (which suffered from not having a big animated family film as this weekend has had on even-numbered years recently).

($ millions)
WEEKEND #44 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $118 Wreck-It Ralph $47, Flight $23.5, Man Iron Fists $7.6
2011 $104 Tower Heist $24, A Very Harold & Kumar Christmas $13
2010 $143 Megamind $46, Due Date $33, For Colored Girls $19
2009 $107 A Christmas Carol $30, Men Stare Goats $13, Fourth Kind $12
2008 $128 Madagascar 2 $63, Role Models $19, Soul Men $5
Avg 2008-11 $120

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.