October 19, 2013

FRIDAY OCTOBER 18 Box Office Report

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #42 of 2013 looks like a pretty weak $93 million for the top 12 films, down 18% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,157 theaters Friday, Carrie from Sony Pictures grossed $6.5 million Friday and is on track for $14.9 million opening weekend (well below the $24.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,700 per theater for the weekend (somewhat below the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mediocre (50% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 50% positive with top critics). Carrie is headed for $38 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,883 theaters Friday, Escape Plan from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.3 million Friday and is pacing toward $9.5 million opening weekend (near our $9.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a bad three-day average of $3,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is split (45% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 50% positive with top critics). Escape Plan is headed for perhaps $24 million total domestic.

Opening at 1,769 theaters Friday, The Fifth Estate from Disney grossed $580,000 Friday and is pacing toward a very weak $1.7 million opening weekend (well under our already bearish $4.0 million forecast). The film is headed for a horrific three-day average of $975 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not supportive (39% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 28% positive with top critics). The Fifth Estate is headed for a quick exit and perhaps $4 million total domestic.

Gravity has been upgraded again significantly to $264 million total domestic, and Captain Phillips has been raised to $98 million domestic.

In limited release, 12 Years a Slave is headed for a great $49,010 per theater opening weekend average at 19 theaters.  All Is Lost starring Robert Redford should average a decent $14,500 per theater at 6 theaters.  On the other hand, the Christian film I’m In Love with  Church Girl should average a horrible $2,220 per theater at 457 theaters.

Weekend 42: October 18-20, 2013  ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Gravity WB [34.5] 31.3 9.1 264
Captain Phillips Sony [18.5] 16.2 5.1 98
Carrie Sony [24.5] 14.9 6.5 38
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 Sony [9.6] 9.9 2.5 117
Escape Plan LG/Sum [9.0] 9.5 3.3 24
Prisoners  WB [2.4] 2.1 .61 64
Enough Said Fox S [—] 1.8 .51 n/a
The Fifth Estate Dis [4.0] 1.7 .58 4
Runner Runner Fox [2.3] 1.7 .53 18
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [1.8] 1.5 .46 84
Machete Kills OpenRoad [1.6] 1.0 .33 5

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $93 million total Friday-Sunday, down 18% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 23% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 42 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $93 Carrie $14.9, Escape Plan $9.5, The Fifth Estate $1.7
2012 $121 Paranormal Activity 4 $29.0, Alex Cross $11.4
2011 $103 Paranormal Activity 3 $52.6, Three Musketeers $8.7
2010 $120 Paranormal Activity 2 $40.7, Hereafter $12.0
2009 $106 Saw VI $14.1, Astro Boy $6.7
Avg 2009-12 $114

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.