Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #37 of 2014 looks like $78 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 6% below the norm for this weekend ($83 million) and better than we forecast.
Opening at 2,175 theaters, No Good Deed from Sony/Screen Gems grossed $8.8 million Friday and is on track for a $24.7 million opening three-day weekend (well above our $16.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a very good $11,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is hostile (10% positive overall and 10% positive with top critics) so don’t expect a long play period. No Good Deed is headed for $67 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,656 theaters, Dolphin Tale 2 from Warner Brothers grossed $4.2 million Friday and is on track for a $15.1 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $19.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a sluggish $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is quite positive (73% positive overall and 73% positive with top critics), and as a family film, Dolphin Tale 2 should play stronger in coming weeks than the tepid opening would suggest. Dolphin Tale 2 is headed for $60 million total domestic.
Opening at 809 theaters, The Drop from Fox Searchlight grossed $1.5 million Friday and is on track for a $5.1 million opening three-day weekend (not forecast). The film is pacing toward a respectable $6,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very strong (87% positive overall and 91% positive with top critics). The Drop is headed for $21 million total domestic.
Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $7.6 million this weekend (down 27% from last weekend and slightly above our $6.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted up again to $335 million. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $4.8 million this weekend (down 25% from last weekend and above our $3.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for TMNT has been adjusted to $192 million. Let’s Be Cops is headed for $4.3 million this weekend (down 23% from last weekend and slightly above our $3.7 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Let’s Be Cops has been adjusted up slightly to $82 million. If I Stay is headed for $3.9 million this weekend (down 30% from last weekend and slightly above our $3.4 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for If I Stay has been adjusted down slightly to $52 million.
| Weekend 37: September 12-14, 2014 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| No Good Deed | Sony | [16.0] | 24.7 | 8.8 | 67 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | [19.0] | 15.1 | 4.2 | 60 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | [6.8] | 7.6 | 2.1 | 335 | |
| The Drop | Fox S | [—] | 5.1 | 1.5 | 21 | |
| Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles | Par | [3.8] | 4.8 | 1.2 | 192 | |
| Let’s Be Cops | Fox | [3.7] | 4.3 | 1.3 | 82 | |
| If I Stay | WB | [3.4] | 3.9 | 1.2 | 52 | |
| The November Man | Rel | [2.7] | 2.7 | 0.8 | 27 | |
| The Giver | Weins | [2.3] | 2.5 | 0.7 | 45 | |
| When the Game Stands Tall | Sony | [2.3] | 2.5 | 0.7 | 30 | |
| The Hundred-Foot Journey | Dis | [2.3] | 2.4 | 0.7 | 57 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $78 million total Friday-Sunday, down 6% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 13% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 37 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $78 | No Good Deed $24.7, Dolphin Tale 2 $15.1, The Drop $5.1 | |
| 2013 | $89 | Insidious Chapter 2 $40.3, The Family $14.0 | |
| 2012 | $69 | Resident Evil: Retribution $21.1, Finding Nemo 3D $16.7, Last Ounce of Courage $1.6 | |
| 2011 | $86 | Lion King 3D $30.2, Drive $11.3, Straw Dogs $5.1. I Don’t Know How She Does It $4.4 | |
| 2010 | $87 | Resident Evil: Afterlife $26.7 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $83 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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