September 14, 2013

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #37 of 2013 looks like a very good $97 million for the top 12 films, up 18% from the average for the same weekend the past few years.

Opening at 3,049 theaters Friday, Insidious Chapter 2 from FilmDistrict grossed $20.1 million Friday and is on track for a $42.3 million opening weekend (above the $32.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $13,900 per theater for the weekend (barely above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is weak (37% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and a scary 22% with top critics). Insidious Chapter 2 is headed for $91 million total domesticwell above the $54.0 million domestic total for Insidious (which opened to $13.3 million April 1-3, 2011).

Opening at 3,091 theaters Friday, The Family from Relativity grossed $5.4 million Friday and is pacing toward a $15.4 million opening weekend (also above our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $5,000 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is low (32% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 29% with top critics). The Family is headed for $43 million total domestic.

The final domestic gross estimates for both Riddick and Instructions Not Included have stabilized at $45 million each. Also, the final domestic estimates for We’re the Millers and Lee Daniels’ The Butler have finally started to stabilize (after weeks of upgrades).  We’re the Millers is headed for $150 million domestic, and The Butler is headed for $116 milion.

Weekend 37: September 13-15, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Insidious Chapter 2 FilmDis [32.5] 42.3 20.1 91
The Family Rel [10.5] 15.5 5.4 43
Riddick Uni [8.3] 7.4 2.2 45
Instructions Not Included LG/Sum [6.0] 6.9 1.4 45
Lee Daniels’ The Butler Weins [5.5] 5.9 1.7 116
We’re the Millers WB [5.1] 5.8 1.7 150
Planes Dis [2.7] 3.3 .71 90
One Direction: This Is Us Sony [2.3] 2.9 .83 29
Elysium Sony [1.8] 2.2 .63 95
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Fox [—] 2.1 .47 68
Blue Jasmine Sony [1.7] 1.6 .46 35
The World’s End Uni/Foc [—] 1.4 .41 28

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $97 million total Friday-Sunday, up 18% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 41% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 37 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $97 Insidious Chapter 2 $42.3, The Family $15.5
2012 $69 Resident Evil: Retribution $21.1, Finding Nemo 3D $16.7, Last Ounce of Courage $1.6
2011 $86 Lion King 3D $30.2, Drive $11.3, Straw Dogs $5.1, I Don’t Know How She Does It $4.4
2010 $87 The Town $23.8, Easy A $17.7, Devil $12.3, Alpha and Omega $9.1
2009 $87 Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs $30.3, The Informant! $10.5, Love Happens $8.1, Jennifer’s Body $6.9
Avg 2009-12 $82

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.