September 7, 2013

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 6 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #36 of 2013 looks like a very average $62 million for the top 12 films, down 5% from the average post-Labor Day weekends the past few years. Riddick and The Butler did not hit our more aggressive forecasts, although the other films were close to our projections.

Opening at 3,107 theaters Friday, Riddick from Universal grossed $7.3 million Friday and is on track for an $18.1 million opening weekend (below the $23.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $5,800 per theater for the weekend (barely above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mediocre (59% positive overall at RottenTomatoes but only 46% with top critics). Riddick is headed for $42 million total domesticbelow the $57.8 million domestic total for The Chronicles of Riddick (which opened to $24.3 million June 11-13, 2004). 

The final domestic gross estimates for We’re the Millers has been upgraded again to $148 million, while Lee Daniels’ The Butler edged up to $117 million.  Surprise hit Instructions Not Included is now pacing toward a $32 million domestic final.

Weekend 36: September 6-8, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Riddick Uni [23.5] 18.1 7.3 42
Lee Daniels’ The Butler Weins [9.7] 7.9 2.4 117
We’re the Millers WB [7.7] 7.7 2.3 148+
Instructions Not Included LG/Sum [5.7] 5.9 1.6 32
Planes Dis [4.8] 4.4 .88 93
One Direction: This Is Us Sony [5.4] 3.6 1.2 30
Elysium Sony [3.0] 3.0 .89 95
Blue Jasmine Sony Cl [2.8] 2.3 .67 38
The World’s End Uni/Foc [2.6] 2.3 .71 31
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters Fox [2.7] 2.3 .54 67
Getaway WB [—] 2.2 .64 9
Mortal Instruments: City of Bones Sony [2.8] 2.0 .60 32
This Is the End Sony [—] 2.0 .58 99

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $62 million total Friday-Sunday, down 5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 19% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 35 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $62 Riddick $18.1
2012 $52 The Words $4.8, The Cold Light of Day $1.8
2011 $65 Contagion $22.4, Warrior $5.2. Bucky Larson: Born to be a Star $1.4
2010 $66 Resident Evil: Afterlife $26.7
2009 $76 TP’s I Can Do Bad All By Myself $23.4, 9 $10.7, Sorority zrow $5.1, Whiteout $4.9
Avg 2009-12 $65

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.