September 6, 2014

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 5 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #36 of 2014 looks like $50 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, 20% below the norm for this weekend ($66 million).  This weekend after Labor Day is usually the worst weekend of the year, and this year did not disappoint.

Opening at 1,950 theaters, The Identical from Freestyle Releasing grossed $530,000 Friday and is on track for a $1.6 million opening three-day weekend (even lower than our bearish $2.3 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a horrific $820 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is extremely negative (4% positive overall and 5% positive with top critics). The Identical is headed for $2.5 million total domestic.

Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $9.8 million this weekend (down 42% from last weekend and somewhat below our $11.8 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted up yet again to $333 million.  If I Stay is headed for $5.8 million this weekend (down 38% from last weekend and above our $4.9 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for If I Stay has been adjusted up slightly to $54 million.   Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $5.6 million this weekend (down 53% from last weekend and below our $6.6 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for TMNT has been adjusted to $191 million.   Let’s Be Cops is headed for $5.3 million this weekend (down 36% from last weekend and near our $5.0 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Let’s Be Cops has been adjusted up slightly to $79 million          

Weekend 36: September 5-7, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis [11.8] 9.8 2.7 333
If I Stay WB [4.9] 5.8 1.6 54
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Par [6.6] 5.6 1.5 191
Let’s Be Cops Fox [5.0] 5.3 1.6 79
The November Man Rel [4.7] 4.1 1.2 26
As Above/So Below Uni [3.6] 3.8 1.1 19
The Giver Weins [3.1] 3.4 .97 44
When the Game Stands Tall Sony [3.5] 3.4 .95 31
The Hundred-Foot Journey Dis [3.2] 3.1 .88 55
Lucy Uni [—] 1.8 .53 126
The Expendables 3 LG/Sum [—] 1.7 .49 39
The Identical Free [2.3] 1.6 .53 2

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $50 million total Friday-Sunday, down 20% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 25% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 36 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $50 The Identical $1.6
2013 $66 Riddick $19.0
2012 $52 The Words $4.8, The Cold Light of Day $1.8
2011 $65 Contagion $22.4, Warrior $5.2, Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star $1.4
2010 $66 The American $13.2, Machete $11.4, Going the Distance $6.9
Avg 2010-13 $62

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.