February 6, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Five full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run well ahead of last year’s anemic pace but about even with the comparable period’s average for the last several years.  The studio estimates for the films opening this weekend turned out to be very accurate.  Chronicle officially opened at #1 with $22,004,098 the first three days (compared to a studio estimate of $22,000,000 issued Sunday morning).  The Woman in Black was close behind at #2 with $20,874,072 (just under the studio estimate of $21,000,000).  Big Miracle opened in fourth place with $7,760,025 (9% below the $8,500,000 studio estimate from Universal).              

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between January 30 and February 5 grossed $143 million, up 39% from the same horrific week in 2011 and even with the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 26% ahead of 2011 but only 1% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films January 30-February 5
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #5      $103    $143    $143   
+39%    + 0%

Year to Date $695    $873    $886    +28%    + 1%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

Contraband $70 million (67 percentile)
Underworld Awakening $67 million (66 percentile)
Chronicle $65 million (65 percentile)
The Grey $59 million (60 percentile)

The Woman in Black $58 million (59 percentile) 
Red Tails $52 million (57 percentile)
Beauty and the Beast 3D $52 million (57 percentile)
The Devil Inside $48 million (54 percentile)

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close $36 million (43 percentile) 
The Artist $32 million (39 percentile) 
Joyful Noise $31 million (35 million) 
Big Miracle $28 million (31 percentile)
One for the Money $27 million (30 percentile) 
The Iron Lady $26 million (30 percentile)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $24 million (26 percentile) 
Haywire $22 million (23 percentile)  
Man on a Ledge $22 million (23 percentile) 

Weekend Predictions for February 10-12 should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.