January 17, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Two full weeks into 2012, domestic box office is running well ahead of last year’s anemic pace but just ahead of the pace for the same period’s average for the last several years.       

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between January 9 and January 15 grossed $160 million, up a scant 2% from the same week in 2011 but down a significant 17% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, 2012 is running 21% ahead of 2011 (thanks to a huge uptick in the first week) but only 3% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films January 9-15
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #2      $157    $193    $160   
+ 2%    -17%

Year to Date $318    $374    $384    +21%    + 3%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol $223 million (94 percentile)
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows $190 million (93 percentile)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $128 million (85 percentile)
Girl with the Dragon Tattoo $110 million (82 percentile)
War Horse $87 million (73 percentile) 
Beauty and the Beast 3D $84 million (73 percentile)
Adventures of Tintin $81 million (72 percentile)
We Bought a Zoo $81 million (72 percentile)

Contraband $71 million (67 percentile)
New Year’s Eve $58 million (59 percentile)
The Devil Inside $51 million (56 percentile)
Joyful Noise $32 million (36 million)
The Sitter $31 million (35 percentile)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy $26 million (30 percentile) 
Darkest Hour $22 million (23 percentile)
The Iron Lady $20 million (20 percentile)

Young Adult $18 million (18 percentile)

Weekend Predictions for January 20-22 should be posted late Wednesday.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.