June 27, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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The past week (seven days ending Sunday) came in down 12% versus last year’s comparable week (the second significant decline in a row).  Year-to-date box office is down 8% versus last year.   

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between June 20 and June 26 grossed a relatively soft $238 million, down 12% versus the same week in 2010 and down 14% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are down 8% (more precisely down 7.6%) from the same period last year (last week the figure was -7.4%, so the difference is really just rounding error — but still), and all films year-to-date are now down 1% versus the comparable year-to-date number averaged over the last four years.   
All Films June 20-26
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #23     $272    $279    $238   
-12%    -14%

Year to Date $5125   $4759   $4734   – 8%    – 1%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now: The Hangover Part II ($259 million, 96th percentile for all wide releases the past two years), Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides ($245 million, 95th percentile),  Cars 2 ($179 million, 93rd percentile), Kung Fu Panda 2 ($170 million, 92nd percentile), X-Men: First Class ($153 million, 90th percentile), Green Lantern ($125 million, 86th percentile), Super 8 ($135 million, 87th percentile), Bad Teacher ($102 million, 80th percentile), Mr Popper’s Penguins ($65 million, 67th percentile).  

The complete list of Total Domestic estimates can be found below.

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections

The weekend Studio Projection (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) for Cars 2 was much higher than the actual weekend figures out today (a difference of about $2 million).  Sunday was obviously softer than expected — that combined with the 9% drop on Saturday from Friday paints a very tenuous picture for the DIsney-Pixar sequel.  I will leave the reviewing to Mitch Salem, but let me just say my five-year old Timmy LOVED the movie, while I was glad he had such a good time.  An unabashed Toy Story fan, I found the film tedious and utterly devoid of character (unlike other Pixar films).  Perhaps many families out there had the same experience we did. 

The Studio Projections for Bad Teacher and the returning films were on target, however. 

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      June 24-26, 2011           Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Cars 2                    (Dis)   $68.0    $66.1     $179
Bad Teacher              (Sony)   $31.0    $31.6     $102
Green Lantern              (WB)   $18.3    $18.0     $125–
Super 8                   (Par)   $12.1    $12.0     $135
Mr Popper’s Penguins      (Fox)   $10.3    $10.1     $ 65
X-Men: First Class        (Fox)   $ 6.6    $ 6.7     $153
The Hangover Part II       (WB)   $ 5.9    $ 5.6     $259
Bridesmaids               (Uni)   $ 5.3    $ 5.3     $165
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)   $ 4.7    $ 4.9     $245 
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)   $ 4.5    $ 4.2     $ 45
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)   $ 4.1    $ 4.2     $170

Read the latest about International box office numbers, and be sure to check out the Summer Movie Draft update. 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.