A solid week ending Sunday (featuring openings for Madagascar 3 and Prometheus above $60 million and $50 million, respectively) ended a three-week rough patch for domestic box office, the first significant disappointing period in 2012.
The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume
All films in wide release playing between June 4 and June 10 grossed $225 million, up 11% from the same week in 2011 and up 5% from the four-year average for the comparable week. While the weekend was up dramatically from the comparable prior weekends (up 15-25%), the Monday-Thursday portion of this past week was quite soft. But with two strong openers over the weekend, the week as a whole was a net positive and the box office is poised to keep building with a critical mass of hit movies in release to create solid returning business in the coming weeks. Year to date, 2012 moved past $4.4 billion for wide-release films and is still running 13% ahead of 2011 and 11% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the year-to-date period.
| Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through June 10, 2012 | ($ millions) | |||||
| 2011 | 4-year Average | 2012 | vs 2011 | vs 4yr Avg | ||
| Week #23 | $202 | $214 | $225 | +11% | +5% | |
| Year to Date | $3,928 | $3,983 | $4,428 | +13% | +11% | |
Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates
The studio estimate for Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted was extremely accurate, within 0.1% of the actual weekend opening. (Paramount estimated the three-day weekend at $60.350 million Sunday morning based on Friday and Saturday results, and the actual weekend came in at $60.317 million.) In contrast, Prometheus came in 2.1% above the $50.000 million estimate issued Sunday morning (an actual $51.050 million weekend). We thought Prometheus might have difficulty making the $50.0 million figure for the weekend based on the drop from Friday to Saturday ($21.466 million Friday and $16.021 million Saturday), but Sunday rallied to a decent $13.563 million (without the benefit of significant night time business like Friday and Saturday offers). The next few days will be very telling for Prometheus as it sets up for a very important second weekend.
Updated Estimates of Final Grosses
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.
| Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Finals | Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) | percentile | |
| Marvel’s The Avengers | 609 | 99 | |
| Madagascar 3 | 201 | 93 | |
| Men in Black 3 | 177 | 92 | |
| Snow White and the Huntsman |
151 | 89 | |
| Prometheus | 145 | 87 | |
| Dark Shadows | 77 | 70 | |
| Battleship | 65 | 65 | |
| The Dictator | 63 | 63 | |
| What to Expect When You’re Expecting | 42 | 49 | |
| Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | 41 | 48 |
Weekend Predictions for June 15-17 should be posted late Wednesday. This weekend features the debuts of Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy.
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