March 13, 2012


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Ten full weeks into 2012, domestic box office continues to run 26% ahead of last year’s horrible pace, and the year-to-date total is now pacing 12% ahead of the comparable period’s average for the last several years.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between March 5 and March 11 grossed a very solid $169 million, up 15% from the same week in 2011 and up 17% from the four-year average for the comparable week.  Year to date, 2012 is now running 26% ahead of 2011 and 12% ahead of the average for the same period the last four years.        

All Wide-Release Films March 5-11
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2011    Avg     2012    2011    Avg

Week #10     $147    $145    $169   
+15%    +17%

Year to Date $1482   $1669   $1865   +26%    +12%

Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates

John Carter did come in above $30 million for its opening weekend, at $30.180 million to be exact.  The studio estimate Sunday was only 1.4% above the actual — a very good estimate by Disney.  Silent House had a more typical over-statement Sunday ($7.01 million studio estimate versus $6.661 million actual opening weekend, a 5% over-statement).  A Thousand Words came in 2.7% below its studio estimate from Paramount: $6.35 million studio estimate versus $6.176 million actual opening weekend.    

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax $219 million (94 percentile)
Safe House $130 million (85 percentile) 
The Vow $129 million (85 percentile) 
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $102 million (79 percentile)
John Carter $74 million (69 percentile)  
Act of Valor $73 million (69 percentile) 
Project X $65 million (65 percentile) 
Chronicle $65 million (65 percentile)
The Woman in Black $54 million (58 percentile) 
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance $50 million (55 percentile) 
Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace 3D $42 million (48 percentile) 
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds $35 million (42 percentile) 

Secret World of Arrietty $21 million (21 percentile)  

Wanderlust $20 million (21 percentile) 

Big Miracle $20 million (21 percentile) 

Gone $12 million (10 percentile)
Silent House $12 million (9 percentile)
A Thousand Words $10 million (7 percentile) 

Weekend Predictions for March 16-18 should be posted late Wednesday.


About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.