SHOWBUZZDAILY Early Friday Box Office: “Thor: Ragnorak” Keeps Lead, “Murder” Solid, “Daddy’s Home 2″” OK

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MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (20th) had a surprising amount of marketing muscle behind it, and at least in the short term it seems to be paying off.  According to preliminary numbers at Deadline, opening day was $10.6M (including $1.6M from Thursday night), and considering that Murder is aimed at an older audience that doesn’t necessarily rush out on opening night, the weekend could get as high as $30M.  The Friday number is only 20% below Gone Girl, another fall thriller catering to a more mature crowd, which legged it out to $167.8M.  With about $150M in production/marketing costs and a fair amount of potential overseas appeal, Murder could be a profitable ride.

DADDY’S HOME 2 (Paramount) was also at $10.6M on Friday (including $1.5M from Thursday night), but the number is more potentially problematic for the comedy.  It was down 32% from the $15.7M opening day for the first Daddy’s Home, which reached a huge 5.8x multiple because it played through Christmas week.  Home 2 isn’t going to have that advantage, and it also wasn’t cheap, with something like $175M in production/marketing costs, plus its family audience will have Justice League and Coco opening in the next 2 weeks.

THOR: RAGNAROK (Marvel/Disney) dropped 60% from last Friday to $18.5M, which was a bit heavier than expected, considering the excellent reviews and seemingly strong word of mouth.  By comparison, Dr Strange dropped 54% on its 2nd Friday.  (The result was still better than Thor: The Dark World, which fell 67% on its parallel day.)  The weekend may be $55M, which would put Ragnarok on track for $315-325M in the US, above the previous Thors but below Guardians of the Galaxy level.

The story of the weekend may be the hold for A BAD MOMS CHRISTMAS (H Brothers/STX), which like its predecessor is defying awful reviews and retaining a loyal audience.  Friday was down just 25% from last week to $4.1M (a bit less impressive because that was Day 3 of release after a Wednesday opening, but still), while the first Bad Moms dropped 53% on its 2d Friday.  Moms Xmas could have a $13M weekend, and it has no major comedy competition ahead for weeks to come.

JIGSAW (Lionsgate) dropped 43% from last Friday to $1.2M for a $4M weekend.  It’s still heading for $40M or so in the US, below all but 1 of its Saw forebears.  BOO 2! A MADEA HALLOWEEN (Lionsgate) lost 45% to $660K, for a $2M weekend.  It probably won’t reach $50M in the US, at the bottom of the Madea pile.

Neither of the quasi-wide releases held well.  LET THERE BE LIGHT (Atlas) increased its theatre count by 15%, but still dropped 30% from last Friday to $350K, and will probably average a blah $1500 per-theatre for the weekend.  LBJ (Electric) fell 51% from last Friday to $165K, and may not even average $1000 for the weekend.

LADY BIRD (A24) expanded well to 37 theatres, where it may average as much as $30K for the weekend.  That’s a bit better than Moonlight, which averaged $24K at 36.  LAST FLAG FLYING (Amazon/Lionsgate), however, is already fading after an expansion to 32 theatres, where it may average a dim $3500 per theatre.

3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) is off to a strong start, with a weekend average at 4 NY?LA theatres that may reach $85K, just below last week’s Lady Bird tally of $91K.