Weekend #52 of 2014 is looking like $156 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down -2% from the norm for this weekend and down -14% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters Christmas Day (somewhat below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Into the Woods from Disney should average $11,500 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $27.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Including Thursday, the film should total about $42 million through Sunday for the first four days. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Into the Woods is averaging 72% positive reviews, actually quite strong given the competition this weekend. Into the Woods is on track for around $140 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $240 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $380 million.
Opening at 3,132 theaters Thursday, Unbroken from Universal should average $6,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $20.0 million opening three-day weekend). Including Christmas, the film should total $30 million from Thursday-Sunday. In early reviews, Unbroken is averaging a perfectly mediocre 50% positive reviews. Unbroken is on track for around $105 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $95 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $200 million.
Opening at around 2,478 theaters Thursday, The Gambler from Paramount should average $3,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $9.5 million opening three-day weekend). Including Christmas, the film should total $14 million from Thursday-Sunday. In early reviews, The Gambler is averaging a middling 49% positive reviews. The Gambler is on track for around $58 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $40 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $98 million.
Expanding nationally (theater count to come) Thursday, The Imitation Game from Weinstein Company should gross about $5.5 million Friday-Sunday and total $11 million through Sunday.
Opening Thursday (theater count to come), Big Eyes also from Weinstein Company should gross about $5.0 million Friday-Sunday and total $7.5 million through Sunday for the first four days.
Opening after all on Thursday on a limited number of theaters (300 at last count), The Interview from Sony should total just under $2 million Friday-Sunday and around $3 million for the first four days through Sunday.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Dec 26-28, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | First 4 Days Dec 25-28 | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Into the Woods | Dis | PG13 | 72% | 27.5 | 42.0 | 140 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | PG | 50% | 20.0 | 30.0 | 105 | |
| The Gambler | Par | PG | 49% | 9.5 | 14.0 | 58 | |
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies will be the top holdover and the #1 movie overall this weekend, unless Into the Woods catches fire. Many family-oriented holdover films this weekend will actually see upticks this Friday-Sunday versus last weekend, not at all unusual for the Christmas weekend.
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RETURNING FILMS Dec 26-28, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | -36% | 35.3 | 225 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | +7% | 18.3 | 98 | |
| Annie | Sony | +3% | 16.4 | 88 | |
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | +3% | 8.2 | 315 | |
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | -30% | 5.7 | 68 | |
| Wild | Fox S | +12% | 4.6 | 50 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | +21% | 4.4 | 207 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $158 million total, ranking 11th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $182 million (while 2012 was $164 million, 2011 was $140 million and 2010 was $149 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $156 million, down -2% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -14% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
12.27.2013
The Wolf of Wall Street Par R Leonardo DiCaprio Jonah Hill
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $108 Actual: $117
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $275
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Fox PG Ben Stiller Kristen Wiig
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $71 Actual: $58
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $130
47 Ronin Uni PG13 Keanu Reeves
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $113
Grudge Match WB PG13 Sylvester Stallone Robert DeNiro
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $38 Actual: $30
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom Weins PG13 Idris Elba Naomie Harris
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $19
Justin Bieber’s Believe Open Road PG Justin Bieber
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $7 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
12.28.2012
Les Miserables Uni PG13 Hugh Jackman Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $40 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $156 Actual: $149
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $289
Django Unchained Weins R Jamie Foxx Leonardo DiCaprio
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $172 Actual: $163
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $261
Silver Linings Playbook Weins R Bradley Cooper Jennifer Lawrence
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $132
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $104
Parental Guidance Fox PG Billy Crystal Bette Midler
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $77
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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