Articles

April 26, 2012
 

WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS April 27-29

>Weekend #17 of 2012 looks like it will be about $112 million for the top 12 films, down 23% from last year’s comparable weekend (when Fast Five exploded with an $86 million opening weekend) and down 17% from the four-year average for this weekend.  A lack of compelling new product should make this weekend the most disappointing in an otherwise very rosy 2012.  The Five-Year Engagement should open with just under $20 million, not a great opening but enough to edge past the second weekend of Think Like a Man.  Two other openers, The Raven and Pirates! Band of Misfits, should battle with The Lucky One and The Hunger Games in the $10-12 million range for each movie.           

Opening at around 2,800 theaters, The Five-Year Engagement from Universal should average a decent $7,050 per theater (for $19.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a good 59% positive for the film starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt.  Five-Year Engagement is on track for a preliminary $70 million domestic.            


Opening at only 2,000 theaters, The Raven from Relativity should average $5,600 per theater (for $11 million Friday-Sunday).  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at an anemic 21% positive.  The Raven (starring John Cusack) is on track for a preliminary $29 million domestic.

Opening at around 3,000 theaters, The Pirates! Band of Misfits from Sony should average a weak $3,400 per theater (for $10.5 million Friday-Sunday).  Reviews at RottenTomatoes are currently running at a surprisingly good 86% positive.  Pirates! is on track for a preliminary $38 million domestic, indicating a solid multiple from its soft opening weekend thanks to the good reviews and its kid-friendly animation genre.

Finally, opening at 2,200 theaters, Safe from Lionsgate should average a weak $3,600 per theater (for $7.9 million Friday-Sunday).  Reviews for this Jason Statham action film are currently at 63% positive.  Safe is headed for a preliminary $27 million domestic.              

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
April 27-29                      Positive   Weekend   Total*

Five-Year Engagement    Uni  R      59%      $19.5    $ 70
The Raven               Rel  R      21%      $11.0    $ 29
Pirates! Band of MisfitsSony PG     86%      $10.5    $ 38
Safe                    LG   R      63%      $ 7.9    $ 27

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Think Like a Man will battle it out for #1 this weekend with Five-Year Engagement but will probably have settle for second place.  Also dropping just under 50%, The Lucky One and The Hunger Games should be the other films grossing over $10 million this weekend.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
April 27-29                     vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*
 
Think Like a Man         Sony     -48%      $17.5     $108 
The Lucky One            WB       -46%      $12.0     $ 60 
The Hunger Games         LG       -49%      $10.5     $389 
Three Stooges            Fox      -67%      $ 5.7     $ 53 
Chimpanzee               Dis      -48%      $ 5.5     $ 32 
Cabin in the Woods       LG       -68%      $ 4.5     $ 48

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $134 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend’s total was an unusually strong $145 million (driven by a powerful opening for Fast Five), while the same weekend in 2010 was $92 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a weak $112 million, down 23% from this weekend last year and down 17% from an “average” comparable weekend over the past four years.             

This Weekend Last Two Years

4/29/11
 Fast Five UNI PG13 Vin Diesel Paul Walker 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $75  Actual: $86
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $212  Actual: $210
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $415
 Prom DIS PG Aimee Teegarden  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11  Actual: $5
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $11  Actual: $10
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0
 Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil WEINS PG   
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6  Actual: $10
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $7
  
4/30/10
 A Nightmare on Elm Street WB R Jackie Earle Haley Kellen Lutz 
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $36  Actual: $33
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60  Actual: $63
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $53
 Furry Vengeance SUMMIT PG Brendan Fraser  
 Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17  Actual: $18
 International — Estimate: n/a  Actual: $18

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.