WEEKEND PREDICTIONS APR 8-10: Comedy Slugfest for #2

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In a battle of two comedies this weekend, Arthur (Warner Bros) and Your Highness (Universal) should split the comedy audience, with Arthur having a slight edge (despite horrific reviews on rottentomatoes — I guess most critics share my disbelief that Russell Brand is opening a movie).  Read Mitch Salem’s review of Arthur to see what he thinks. Neither comedy looks strong enough to dethrone Hop from the top spot.  (Returning film forecasts are listed in a table below after the jump.)  For a look at how rare it is for two comedies (or any other genre) to open head to head, please read the post on Movie Scheduling.  Next weekend does not have a live action/ adult comedy opening, and both Universal and Warner Brothers would have benefited if one studio had blinked and moved their comedy one week.  Both studios certainly were attracted to this weekend because of Date Night‘s $27 million opening this weekend last year, but remember that Date was not only the only comedy opening but also the only movie opening.  As for the rest of this weekend’s slate, Soul Surfer and Hanna have rather quiet opening weekends ahead.

New Films                        Critics   Opening  Domestic
                                 Positive  Weekend  Ultimate
.
Arthur                  WB  PG13   07%      $15       $48
Your Highness          Uni  R      36%      $13.5     $38
Soul Surfer        TriStar  PG     36%      $10       $28
Hanna                Focus  PG13   83%      $ 8.5     $33

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

 


As we said earlier, Hop has a clear hold on the #1 position in its second weekend.   It is poised for a decline below 40%, which is very good.  However, Hop is not showing the weekday strength of How to Train Your Dragon (admittedly a pretty high bar).  Hop  is on a solid (but not spectacular) track ahead.  Source Code‘s decline will also be good, and the 47% decline for Insidious is actually pretty good for a horror film.

                                vs wknd 1  Weekend  Ultimate

Hop                    Uni        -37%      $23.7     $127
Source Code            Sum        -40%      $ 9       $46
Insidious            FilmD        -47%      $ 7       $32
Limitless              Rel        –38%      $ 6       $84
Diary of a Wimpy Kid 2 Fox        -45%      $ 5.5     $58
Lincoln Lawyer         LG         -36%      $ 4.5     $62
 
Box Office Volume