Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #5 of 2015 now looks like $87 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for this weekend but not as strong as our optimistic forecast.
Opening at 2,893 theaters Friday, Project Almanac from Paramount is on track for an $8.5 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $16.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a below average $2,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is soft (36% positive overall and 28% positive with top critics). Project Almanac is headed for $18 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,823 theaters Friday, Black or White from Relativity is on track for a $6.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat above our $4.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a below average $3,550 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is also soft (35% positive overall and a similar 33% positive with top critics). Black or White is headed for $17 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,841 theaters Friday, The Loft from Open Road Films is on track for a $2.9 million opening three-day weekend (fairly close to our $2.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $1,550 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not offering much hope: 0% positive so far with a few dozen reviews. The Loft is headed for $5 million total domestic.
|
Weekend 5: Jan 31-Feb 1, 2015 |
($ millions) |
|
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast |
Early Weekend Estimate |
Weekend Studio Estimate |
Actual Friday Gross |
Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. |
|
American Sniper |
WB |
[41.0] |
30.5 |
31.8 |
10.0–16.8 |
355 |
|
Paddington |
Weins |
[7.5] |
8.0 |
8.51 |
1.9–4.5 |
71 |
|
Project Almanac |
Par |
[16.5] |
8.2 |
8.50 |
3.2–3.9 |
18 |
|
Black or White |
Rel |
[4.5] |
6.1 |
6.5 |
2.3–3.0 |
17 |
|
The Boy Next Door |
Uni |
[7.7] |
6.0 |
6.1 |
2.1–2.9 |
34 |
|
The Wedding Ringer |
Sony |
[6.9] |
5.7 |
5.7 |
1.9–3.0 |
62 |
|
The Imitation Game |
Weins |
[5.0] |
5.3 |
5.2 |
1.6–2.6 |
85 |
|
Taken 3 |
Fox |
[3.6] |
3.5 |
3.7 |
1.2–2.0 |
86 |
|
Strange Magic |
Dis |
[2.8] |
2.9 |
3.4 |
.77–1.8 |
15 |
|
The Loft |
OpenRd |
[2.5] |
3.0 |
2.9 |
1.2–1.2 |
5 |
|
Selma |
Par |
[3.3] |
2.8 |
2.7 |
.87–1.3 |
53 |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
American Sniper is headed for $31.8 million this weekend (down -51% from last weekend and well below our $41.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $355 million.
Paddington is headed for $8.5 million this weekend (down -31% from last weekend and a touch above our $7.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $71 million.
The Boy Next Door is headed for $6.1 million this weekend (down -59% from last weekend and below our $7.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $34 million.
The Wedding Ringer is headed for $5.7 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and below our $6.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $62 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $87 million total Friday-Sunday, up +13% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +23% from the same weekend last year (and up nominally from yesterday’s $84 million estimate).
|
WEEKEND 5 |
($ millions) |
|
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films |
Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) |
|
2015 |
$87 |
Project Almanac $8.5, Black or White $6.5, The Loft $2.9 |
|
2014 |
$71 |
That Awkward Moment $8.7, Labor Day $5.2 |
|
2013 |
$69 |
Warm Bodies $19.8, Bullet to the Head $4.5 |
|
2012 |
$94 |
Chronicle $22.0, Woman in Black $20.9, Big Miracle $7.8 |
|
2011 |
$73 |
The Rite $14.8, The Mechanic $11.4 |
|
Avg 2011-14 |
$77 |
|
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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