Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #6 of 2015 now looks like $139 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up slightly from yesterday’s estimate ($135 million) and up a bit from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,641 theaters Friday, SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water from Paramount is on track for a $56.0 million opening three-day weekend (way above our $30.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a very good $15,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is solid (75% positive overall and 72% positive with top critics). SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $160 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,181 theaters Friday, Jupiter Ascending from Warner Brothers is on track for a $19.0 million opening three-day weekend (near our $18.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a fairly average $5,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very soft (23% positive overall and a 20% positive with top critics). Jupiter Ascending is headed for $41 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,872 theaters Friday, Seventh Son from Universal is on track for a $7.1 million opening three-day weekend (now fairly close to our $7.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a DOA $2,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak: 11% positive overall and 13% positive with top critics. Seventh Son is headed for $14 million total domestic.
| Weekend 6: February 6-8, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [30.5] | 53.0 | 56.0 | 15.1–24.3 | 160 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [21.3] | 25.0 | 24.2 | 6.2–11.2 | 358 | |
| Jupiter Ascending | WB | [18.5] | 17.8 | 19.0 | 6.4–7.6 | 41 | |
| Seventh Son | Uni | [7.5] | 6.6 | 7.1 | 2.3–3.0 | 14 | |
| Paddington | Weins | [5.2] | 5.7 | 5.4 | 1.1–2.6 | 73 | |
| Project Almanac | Par | [4.5] | 5.0 | 5.3 | 1.5–2.5 | 25 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | [3.9] | 4.9 | 4.9 | 1.3–2.3 | 90 | |
| The Wedding Ringer | Sony | [3.7] | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1.3–2.2 | 63 | |
| Black or White | Rel | [4.2] | 4.5 | 4.5 | 1.3–2.1 | 23 | |
| The Boy Next Door | Uni | [3.4] | 3.9 | 4.1 | 1.2–1.9 | 35 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
American Sniper is headed for $24.2 million this weekend (down -21% from last weekend and somewhat above our $21.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $358 million.
Paddington is headed for $5.4 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and near our $5.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $73 million.
Project Almanac is headed for $5.3 million this weekend (down -36% from last weekend and slightly above our $4.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $25 million.
The Imitation Game is headed for $4.9 million this weekend (down -3% from last weekend and above our $3.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $90 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $139 million total Friday-Sunday, up +5% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +1% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 6 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $139 | Sponge Out of Water $56.0, Jupiter Ascending $19.0, Seventh Son $7.1 | |
| 2014 | $138 | LEGO Movie $69.1, Monuments Men $22.0, Vampire Academy $3.9 | |
| 2013 | $86 | Identity Thief $34.6, Side Effects $9.3 | |
| 2012 | $173 | The Vow $41.2, Safe House $40.2, Journey 2: Mysterious Island $27.3 | |
| 2011 | $135 | The Roommate $15.0, Sanctum $9.4 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $133 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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