Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #45 of 2014 now looks like $149 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, still up 7% the norm for this weekend ($140 million) but lower than it appeared yesterday ($154 million) and now down -7% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,761 theaters, Big Hero 6 from Disney grossed $15.8 million Friday and $24.1 million Saturday, now on track for a $56.2 million opening three-day weekend (a hair below our $57.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward $14,900 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very positive (91% positive overall and 89% positive with top critics) and should help keep this film humming in future weeks. Big Hero 6 is headed for $193 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,561 theaters, Interstellar from Paramount grossed $17.0 million Friday and $18.4 million Saturday, now on track for a $50.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $64.5 million forecast and very possibly drifting down to $49.2 or $49.5 million when the official weekend numbers are released Monday). The film is pacing toward a similar $14,000 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is positive but bordering on polite (72% positive overall and 70% positive with top critics). Interstellar is headed for $145 million total domestic.
Gone Girl is headed for $6.1 million this weekend (down 28% from last weekend and near our $5.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Gone Girl has been adjusted to $166 million.
Ouija is headed for $6.0 million this weekend (down 44% from last weekend but above our $5.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Ouija has been adjusted to $55 million.
St. Vincent is headed for $5.7 million this weekend (down 21% from last weekend and somewhat above our $5.1 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for St. Vincent has been adjusted to $43 million.
Fury is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 38% from last weekend and near our $5.2 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Fury has been adjusted to $84 million.
Nightcrawler is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 47% from last weekend and slightly below our $5.8 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Nightcrawler has been adjusted to $37 million.
| Weekend 45: November 7-9, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri-Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [57.5] | 57.5 | 56.2 | 15.8–24.1 | 193 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [64.5] | 54.0 | 50.0 | 17.0–18.4 | 145 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [5.8] | 6.0 | 6.1 | 1.9–2.8 | 166 | |
| Ouija | Uni | [5.1] | 5.8 | 6.0 | 1.9–2.7 | 55 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | [5.1] | 5.6 | 5.7 | 1.6–2.5 | 43 | |
| Fury | Sony | [5.2] | 5.5 | 5.5 | 1.7–2.5 | 84 | |
| Nightcrawler | OpenRoad | [5.8] | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.7–2.3 | 37 | |
| John Wick | LG/Sum | [4.1] | 4.1 | 4.1 | 1.2–1.8 | 48 | |
| Alexander and the Terrible… | Dis | [3.9] | 3.4 | 3.5 | .92–1.6 | 69 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | [4.2] | 2.8 | 2.8 | .66–1.2 | 53 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $149 million total Friday-Sunday, up 7% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 7% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 45 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $149 | Big Hero 6 $56.2, Interstellar $50.0 | |
| 2013 | $160 | Thor: The Dark World $85.7, About Time $4.8 | |
| 2012 | $163 | Skyfall $88.4 | |
| 2011 | $126 | Immortals $32.2, Jack and Jill $25.0, J. Edgar $11.2 | |
| 2010 | $112 | Megamind $46.0, Due Date $32.7, For Colored Girls $19.5 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $140 | ||
Check back later today for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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