Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #50 of 2014 now looks like $78 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a touch better than yesterday’s estimate ($76 million) but still down sharply from the norm for this weekend (down 39% from $127 million) and down 45% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,503 theaters, Exodus: Gods and Kings from 20th Century Fox grossed $8.6 million Friday and $9.2 million Saturday, now on track for a $24.5 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $28.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $7,000 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is not supportive (28% positive overall and 24% positive with top critics). Exodus is headed for $103 million total domestic.
Opening at 979 theaters, Top Five from Paramount grossed $2.5 million Friday and $2.9 million Saturday, now on track for a $7.2 million opening three-day weekend (below our $10.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward $7,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very strong (89% positive overall and 93% positive with top critics). Top Five is headed for $66 million total domestic after a fairly long run.
| Weekend 50: December 12-14, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Exodus: Gods and Kings | Fox | [28.5] | 24.4 | 24.5 | 8.8–9.2 | 103 | |
| Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | [11.8] | 12.5 | 13.2 | 3.8–5.8 | 318 | |
| Penguins of Madagascar | FOX/DWA | [6.7] | 7.1 | 7.3 | 1.6–3.5 | 74 | |
| Top Five | Par | [10.5] | 7.0 | 7.2 | 2.5–2.9 | 66 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | [5.4] | 6.2 | 6.1 | 1.4–2.9 | 207 | |
| Interstellar | Par | [4.8] | 5.4 | 5.5 | 1.5–2.4 | 189 | |
| Horrible Bosses 2 | WB | [5.0] | 4.5 | 4.6 | 1.5–2.0 | 54 | |
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | [2.4] | 2.7 | 2.8 | .79–1.3 | 86 | |
| Theory of Everything | Foc/Uni | [2.3] | 2.5 | 2.5 | .74–1.1 | 25 | |
| Wild | Fox S | [—] | 1.7 | 1.6 | .48–.63 | n/a | |
| Birdman | Fox S | [—] | n/a | 1.3 | .38–.59 | 25 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | [2.4] | 1.0 | 1.1 | .30 | 167 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 is headed for $13.2 million this weekend (down 40% from last weekend and above our $11.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $318 million.
Penguins of Madagascar is headed for $7.3 million this weekend (down 33% from last weekend and somewhat above our $6.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $74 million.
Big Hero 6 is headed for $6.1 million this weekend (down 24% from last weekend and above our $5.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $207 million.
Interstellar is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down 29% from last weekend and above our $4.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $189 million.
Horrible Bosses 2 is headed for $4.6 million this weekend (down 45% from last weekend and near our $5.0 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $54 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $78 million total Friday-Sunday, down 39% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 45% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 50 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $78 | Exodus: Gods and Kings $24.5, Top Five $7.2 | |
| 2013 | $141 | The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug $73.6, Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas $16.0 | |
| 2012 | $130 | The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey $84.6 | |
| 2011 | $110 | Sherlock Holmes $39.6, Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $23.2 | |
| 2010 | $128 | TRON: Legacy $44.0, Yogi Bear $16.4, The Fighter $12.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $127 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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