Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #13 of 2015 now looks like $146 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, above the norms for this weekend.
Opening at 3,708 theaters Friday, Home from Fox and DreamWorks Animation is on track for a $54.0 million opening three-day weekend (way above our non-believing $28.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward $14,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is mediocre at best (48% positive overall and a more concerning 37% positive with top critics). Still, as a family animated film, it should play fairly long in theaters. Home is headed for $178 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,175 theaters Friday, Get Hard from Warner Brothers is on track for a $34.6 million opening three-day weekend (closer to but still slightly above our $29.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent $10,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (33% positive overall and 31% positive with top critics). Get Hard is headed for $108 million total domestic.
Expanding to 1,218 theaters Friday, It Follows from Radius/ TWC is on track for a $4.0 million first wide three-day weekend (near our $3.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a wobbly $3,300 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is extremely supportive, especially for a horror film (95% positive overall and 90% positive with top critics). It Follows is headed for $17 million total domestic.
| Weekend 13: March 27-29, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Home | Fox/DWA | [28.0] | 58.0 | 54.0 | 15.6/ 21.9 | 178 | |
| Get Hard | WB | [29.0] | 34.5 | 34.6 | 12.9/ 13.1 | 108 | |
| Insurgent | LG/Sum | [23.3] | 21.6 | 22.1 | 6.9/ 9.5 | 135 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | [20.5] | 17.5 | 17.5 | 4.7/ 7.4 | 200 | |
| It Follows | Rad | [3.8] | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.4/ 1.5 | 17 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [3.3] | 3.0 | 3.1 | .84/ 1.4 | 130 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | [2.4] | 2.3 | 2.2 | .63/ .93 | 34 | |
| Run All Night | WB | [2.9] | 2.2 | 2.2 | .65/ .98 | 29 | |
| Do You Believe? | PureFlix | [2.4] | 2.1 | 2.2 | .67/ .89 | 8 | |
| The Gunman | OpenRoad | [2.5] | 2.0 | 2.0 | .60/ .88 | 9 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Insurgent is headed for $22.1 million this weekend (down -58% from last weekend and a touch below our $23.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $135 million.
Cinderella is headed for $17.5 million this weekend (down -50% from last weekend and somewhat below our $20.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $200 million.
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $3.1 million this weekend (down -34% from last weekend and near our $3.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $130 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $146 million total Friday-Sunday, a little less than yesterday’s estimate ($150 million) but still up +12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +12% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 13 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $146 | Home $54.0, Get Hard $34.6, It Follows $4.0 | |
| 2014 | $131 | Noah $43.7, Grand Budapest Hotel $8.5, Sabotage $5.3 | |
| 2013 | $140 | G.I. Joe Retaliation $40.5, TP’s Temptation $21.6, The Host $10.6 | |
| 2012 | $140 | Wrath of the Titans $33.5, Mirror Mirror $18.1 | |
| 2011 | $114 | Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Roderick Rules $23.8 Sucker Punch $19.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $131 | ||
Check back tomorrow for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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