Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #10 of 2015 now looks like $79 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s $77 million estimate but still down significantly from the norms for this weekend among the worst first weekends of March on record.
Opening at 3,201 theaters Friday, Chappie from Warner Brothers is on track for a $13.3 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $22.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a sub-par $4,150 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite soft (30% positive overall and only 18% positive with top critics). Chappie is headed for $30 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,573 theaters Friday, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel from Fox Searchlight is on track for a $8.6 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $8.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very average $5,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly supportive (64% positive overall and 58% positive with top critics). Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is headed for $29 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,777 theaters Friday, Unfinished Business from Fox is on track for a $4.8 million opening three-day weekend (far below our $11.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a decidedly unfunny $1,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is quite negative (14% positive overall and 19% positive with top critics). Unfinished Business is headed for $9 million total domestic.
| Weekend 10: March 6-8, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Chappie | Sony | [22.0] | 13.0 | 13.3 | 4.6–5.3 | 30 | |
| Focus | WB | [9.8] | 9.1 | 10.0 | 2.9–4.4 | 59 | |
| Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel | FoxS | [8.0] | 9.3 | 8.6 | 2.7–3.6 | 29 | |
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | [7.6] | 8.1 | 8.3 | 2.2–3.9 | 118 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | [7.3] | 6.9 | 7.0 | 1.4–3.3 | 167 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | [5.1] | 5.1 | 5.6 | 1.8–2.4 | 159 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | [5.3] | 5.7 | 5.3 | 1.5–2.4 | 43 | |
| Lazarus Effect | Rel | [4.4] | 4.6 | 5.1 | 1.6–2.4 | 23 | |
| The DUFF | CBS/LG | [4.7] | 4.7 | 4.9 | 1.5–2.2 | 37 | |
| Unfinished Business | Fox | [11.0] | 4.8 | 4.8 | 1.8–1.9 | 9 | |
| American Sniper | WB | [5.0] | 4.4 | 4.5 | 1.1–2.2 | 345 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Focus is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down -46% from last weekend and very close to our $9.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $59 million.
Kingsman: The Secret Service is headed for $8.3 million this weekend (down -30% from last weekend and slightly above our $7.6 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $118 million.
SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is headed for $7.0 million this weekend (down -35% from last weekend and near our $7.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $167 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $79 million total Friday-Sunday, down -37% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -40% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 10 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $79 | Chappie $13.3, Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel $8.6, Unfinished Business $4.8 | |
| 2014 | $131 | 300: Rise of an Empire $45.0, Mr Peabody & Sherman $32.3 | |
| 2013 | $128 | Oz the Great and Powerful $79.1, Dead Man Down $5.3 | |
| 2012 | $121 | John Carter $30.2, Silent House $6.7, A Thousand Words $6.2 | |
| 2011 | $118 | Rango $38.1, Adjustment Bureau $21.2, Beastly $9.9, Take Me Home Tonight $3.5 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $125 | ||
Check later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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