Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #19 of 2015 looks like a wobbly $120 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($117 million) but still well below the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,003 theaters Friday, Hot Pursuit from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $13.3 million opening three-day weekend (a little better than yesterday’s estimate but still well below our $17.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is now pacing toward a sluggish $4,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is harsh (6% positive overall and 3% positive with top critics). Hot Pursuit is headed for $29 million total domestic.
The D Train from IFC opened at 1,009 theaters and is headed for a disastrous opening weekend of less than half a million dollars, averaging less than $500 per theater for the weekend.
| Weekend 19: May 8-10, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Avengers: Age of Ultron | Dis | [84.8] | 78.0 | 77.2 | 21.3/33.9 | 491 | |
| Hot Pursuit | WB | [17.5] | 12.9 | 13.3 | 4.2/ 4.9 | 29 | |
| Age of Adaline | LG | [4.4] | 4.9 | 5.6 | 1.5/ 2.2 | 42 | |
| Furious 7 | Uni | [4.3] | 5.0 | 5.3 | 1.4/ 2.3 | 353 | |
| Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 | Sony | [3.8] | 5.1 | 5.2 | 1.2/ 2.2 | 67 | |
| Ex Machina | A24 | [1.7] | 3.0 | 3.5 | .97/ 1.5 | 25 | |
| Home | Fox/DWA | [2.5] | 2.5 | 3.0 | .62/ 1.3 | 162 | |
| Woman in Gold | Weins | [1.0] | 1.4 | 1.7 | .37/ .71 | 32 | |
| Cinderella | Dis | [1.7] | 2.0 | 1.6 | .44/ 7.3 | 199 | |
| The D Train | IFC | [1.5] | .45 | .47 | .16/ 1.6 | 1 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Avengers: Age of Ultron is headed for $77.2 million this weekend (down -60% from last weekend and somewhat below our $84.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $491 million.
Age of Adaline is headed for $5.6 million this weekend (down -10% from last weekend and now well above our $4.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $42 million.
Furious 7 is headed for $5.3 million this weekend (down -21% from last weekend and above our $4.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $353 million.
Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 is headed for $5.2 million this weekend (down -12% from last weekend and well above our $3.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $67 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $120 million total Friday-Sunday, down -16% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down -5% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 19 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $120 | Hot Pursuit $13.3 | |
| 2014 | $127 | Neighbors $49.0, Mom’s Night Out $4.3, Legends of Oz $3.7 | |
| 2013 | $152 | Great Gatsby $50.1, Peeples $4.6 | |
| 2012 | $162 | Dark Shadows $29.7 | |
| 2011 | $129 | Bridesmaids $26.2, Priest $15.0 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $143 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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