Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #30 of 2015 now looks like $140 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, lower than yesterday’s projection and now slightly below the norm for this weekend and a touch above last year’s weekend.
Opening at 3,723 theaters Friday, Pixels from Sony is now on track for a $24.0 million opening three-day weekend (well below our $37.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $6,400 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (19% positive overall and 14% positive with top critics). Pixels is headed for $60 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,031 theaters Friday, Paper Towns from Fox is now on track for a $12.5 million opening three-day weekend (way below our $26.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a sub-par $4,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is supportive with critics with wider-appeal outlets (58% positive overall and 71% positive with top critics). Paper Towns is headed for $40 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,772 theaters Friday, Southpaw from Weinstein Company is on track for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend (slightly above our $13.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a slightly above average $5,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is fairly positive (58% positive overall and 57% positive with top critics). Southpaw is headed for $51 million total domestic.
| Weekend 30: July 24-26, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri/ Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Ant-Man | Dis | [26.5] | 23.5 | 24.8 | 7.2/ 9.9 | 168 | |
| Pixels | Sony | [37.5] | 25.0 | 24.0 | 9.2/ 8.4 | 60 | |
| Minions | Uni | [24.2] | 22.2 | 22.1 | 6.8/ 9.0 | 328 | |
| Trainwreck | Uni | [18.4] | 16.9 | 17.3 | 5.3/ 6.8 | 109 | |
| Southpaw | Weins | [13.5] | 16.8 | 16.5 | 6.2/ 5.7 | 51 | |
| Paper Towns | Fox | [26.5] | 13.9 | 12.5 | 6.3/ 3.5 | 40 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [7.3] | 7.5 | 7.4 | 2.2/ 2.9 | 349 | |
| Jurassic World | Uni | [7.4] | 6.7 | 6.9 | 2.1/ 2.9 | 655 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | [2.3] | 2.4 | 2.4 | .67/ .98 | 95 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | [2.1] | 1.8 | 1.9 | .68/ .72 | 74 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Ant-Man is headed for $24.8 million this weekend (down -57% from last weekend and slightly below our $26.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $168 million.
Minions is headed for $22.1 million this weekend (down -55% from last weekend and slightly below our $24.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $328 million.
Trainwreck is headed for $17.3 million this weekend (down -43% from last weekend and a touch below our $18.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $109 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $140 million total Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s estimate ($148 million) and now -5% below the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +2% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 30 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $140 | Pixels $24.0, Southpaw $16.5, Paper Towns $12.5 | |
| 2014 | $137 | Lucy $43.9, Hercules $29.8, And So It Goes $4.6 | |
| 2013 | $158 | The Wolverine $53.1, Fruitvale Station $4.6 | |
| 2012 | $126 | The Watch $12.8, Step Up Revolution $11.7 | |
| 2011 | $171 | Cowboys & Aliens $36.4, The Smurfs $35.6, Crazy Stupid Love $19.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $148 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
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