Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #27 of 2015 looks like $133 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate but still below the norm for this weekend but slightly above last year’s similar bummer of a July 4th weekend.
Opening at 3,758 theaters Friday, Terminator: Genisys from Paramount is now on track for a $28.7 million opening three-day weekend (somewhat below our $34.0 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week but a little better than yesterday’s early estimate). The film is pacing toward an only somewhat above average $7,600 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). The first five days Wednesday through Sunday look like $44 million. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is weak (27% positive overall and 25% positive with top critics). Terminator: Genisys is headed for $100 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,355 theaters Friday, Magic Mike XXL from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $12.0 million opening three-day weekend (even worse than yesterday’s estimate and nowhere near our $30.5 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward terrible $3,600 per theater for the weekend. The first five days Wednesday through Sunday look like $27 million. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is tilting positive (61% positive overall and 62% positive with top critics). Magic Mike XXL is headed for a stripped-down $58 million total domestic.
| Weekend 27: July 3-5, 2015 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Jurassic World | Uni | [30.9] | 28.9 | 30.9 | 11.8 | 666 | |
| Inside Out | Dis | [30.8] | 30.0 | 30.1 | 12.5 | 351 | |
| Terminator: Genisys | Par | [34.0] | 26.5 | 28.7 | 10.7 | 100 | |
| Magic Mike XXL | WB | [30.5] | 15.1 | 12.0 | 6.30 | 58 | |
| Ted 2 | Uni | [14.3] | 11.1 | 11.0 | 4.40 | 81 | |
| Max | WB | [6.9] | 6.3 | 7.0 | 2.65 | 42 | |
| Spy | Fox | [5.4] | 4.8 | 5.5 | 1.92 | 115 | |
| San Andreas | WB | [3.4] | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.05 | 158 | |
| Dope | OpenR | [1.3] | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.45 | 18 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Top Holdovers
Jurassic World is headed for $30.9 million this weekend (down -43% from last weekend and a touch below our $30.9 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $666 million.
Inside Out is headed for $30.1 million this weekend (down -42% from last weekend and near our $30.8 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $351 million.
Ted 2 is headed for $11.0 million this weekend (down -67% from last weekend and slightly below our $14.3 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $81 million.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $133 million total Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($130 million) and down -21% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up +10% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 27 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2015 | $133 | Terminator: Genisys $28.7, Magic Mike XXL $12.0 | |
| 2014 | $121 | Tammy $21.6, Deliver Us From Evil $9.7, Earth to Echo $8.4 | |
| 2013 | $222 | Despicable Me 2 $83.5, The Lone Ranger $29.2 | |
| 2012 | $182 | Amazing Spider-Man $62.0, Savages $16.0 | |
| 2011 | $192 | Transformers: Dark of the Moon $97.9, Larry Crowne $13.1 | |
| Avg 2011-14 | $168 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
