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August 16, 2015
 

Weekend Studio Estimates 8.14-16.2015

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #33 of 2015 looks like $132 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, somewhat above the norm for this weekend (see track below).

Opening at 2,757 theaters Friday, Straight Outta Compton from Universal is now on track for a $56.1 million opening three-day weekend (revised down from yesterday’s estimate but still well above our $45.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a terrific $20,300 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is quite positive (88% positive overall and 78% positive with top critics). Straight Outta Compton is headed for $168 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,638 theaters Friday, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. from Warner Brothers is now on track for a $13.5 million opening three-day weekend (below our $18.0 million forecast earlier this week). The film is pacing toward a light $3,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment at RottenTomatoes is positive overall but mediocre with elite critics (68% positive overall and 48% positive with top critics). The Man from U.N.C.L.E. is headed for $33 million total domestic.

Weekend 33: August 14-16, 2015 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri/ Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Straight Outta Compton Uni [45.5] 59.0 56.1 24.2/ 19.3 168
Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation Par [15.7] 17.1 17.0 4.9/ 7.3 189
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. WB [18.0] 12.9 13.5 4.9/ 5.1 33
Fantastic Four Fox [8.2] 7.6 8.0 2.4/ 3.3 54
The Gift STX [6.4] 6.3 6.5 1.9/ 2.7 41
Ant-Man Dis [4.5] 5.3 5.5 1.5/ 2.3 174
Vacation WB [5.2] 5.1 5.3 1.5/ 2.2 60
Minions Uni [4.4] 4.7 5.2 1.4/ 2.1 331
Ricki and the Flash Sony [4.3] 4.4 4.6 1.3/ 1.9 27
Trainwreck Uni [4.4] 3.8 3.8 1.2/ 1.6 111

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Top Holdovers

Mission: Impossible — Rogue Nation is headed for $17.0 million this weekend (down -40% from last weekend and somewhat above our $15.7 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $189 million.

Fantastic Four is headed for $8.0 million this weekend (down -69% from last weekend and near our $8.2 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $54 million.

The Gift is headed for $6.5 million this weekend (down -45% from last weekend and near our $6.4 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $41 million.

Ant-Man is headed for $5.5 million this weekend (down -30% from last weekend and above our $4.5 million forecast). Revised total domestic outlook: $174 million.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $132 million total Friday-Sunday, up +9% from the average for the comparable weekend and up +3% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 33 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2015 $132 Straight Outta Compton $56.1, Man from U.N.C.L.E. $13.5
2014 $129 Let’s Be Cops $17.8, The Expendables 3 $15.9, The Giver $12.3
2013 $121 Lee Daniels’ The Butler $24.6, Kick-Ass 2 $13.3, Jobs $6.7
2012 $127 The Expendables 2 $28.6, ParaNorman $14.1, Sparkle $11.6, Odd Life of Timothy Green $10.8
Avg 2011-14 $121

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.