April 13, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates APRIL 11-13

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #15 of 2014 looks like $131 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, a significant downgrade from yesterday’s estimate but still 17% above the four-year average for this weekend ($112 million).  Rio 2 and Captain America 2 are supporting the box office, while two smaller films in the horror and Kevin Costner Sports Film genres opened to unpacked houses.  

Opening at 3,948 theaters Friday, Rio 2 from Fox grossed $12.0 million Friday and a not great $15.4 million Saturday, now putting the animated sequel on track for a $39.0 million opening weekend (very close to our initial $39.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $9,900 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is mediocre (49% positive overall and 45% positive with top critics). Rio 2 is now headed for $136 million total domestic, a touch below the $143.6 million domestic for Rio (released by Fox on April 15, 2011).

Opening at 2,648 theaters Friday, Oculus from Relativity grossed $4.9 million Friday and $4.3 million Saturday, now headed for a $12.0 million opening weekend (now somewhat below our $13.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is fairly positive (70% positive overall and 59% positive with top critics). Oculus is headed for $34 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,781 theaters Friday, Draft Day from Lionsgate/Summit grossed $3.6 million Friday and $3.8 million Saturday, now pacing toward a very weak $9.8 million opening weekend (well below our $12.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a horrible three-day average of $3,500 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is slightly positive (61% positive overall and 57% positive with top critics). Draft Day is headed for $32 million total domestic.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier is headed for a $41.4 million second weekend (down 56% from the opening weekend and somewhat below our forecast).  Adjusted domestic total forecast: $259 million.

Weekend 15: April 11-13, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis [45.6] 42.0 41.4 11.9–17.8 259
Rio 2 Fox [39.5] 45.0 39.0 12.0–15.4 136
Oculus Rel [13.5] 12.8 12.0 4.9–4.3 34
Draft Day LG/Sum [12.5] 10.8 9.8 3.6–3.8 32
Divergent LG/Sum [7.1] 7.5 7.5 2.4–3.3 142
Noah Par [8.4] 7.3 7.4 2.1–3.2 103
God’s Not Dead Free [6.1] 5.8 4.5 1.6–2.1 53
Grand Budapest Hotel FoxS [4.7] 4.0 4.1 1.2–1.8 53
Muppets Most Wanted Dis [3.3] 2.4 2.2 .56–.99 54
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox/DWA [2.9] 1.9 1.8 .46–.81 111

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $131 million total Friday-Sunday, down from yesterday’s estimate ($143 million) but still up 17% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 21% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 15 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $131 Rio 2 $39.0, Oculus $12.0, Draft Day $9.8
2013 $109 42 $27.5, Scary Movie V $14.2, Place Beyond the Pines $3.9
2012 $107 Three Stooges $17.0, Cabin in the Woods $14.7, Lockout $6.2
2011 $117 Rio $39.2, Scream 4 $18.7, The Conspirator $3.5
2010 $112 Kick-Ass $19.8, Death at a Funeral $16.2
Avg 2010-13 $112

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.