April 6, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates APRIL 4-6

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #14 of 2014 looks like $160 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up over 40% from the four-year average for this weekend.  All credit goes to the second Captain America, as Disney has succesfully transformed April into the new May on the evolving movie release calendar.  

Opening at 3,938 theaters Friday, Captain America: The Winter Solider from Disney grossed a revised $34.6 million through Friday and $24.5 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $96.2 million opening weekend (somewhat above our $92.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $24,400 per theater for the weekend (almost five times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is quite strong (88% positive overall and 79% positive with top critics). Captain America 2 is headed for $213 million total domestic, up from $176.7 million domestic for Captain America: The First Avenger (released by Paramount on July 22, 2011).

Noah is looking a little better than it did yesterday morning but is still running behind our projected pace for the weekend and its final domestic projection has been downgraded, while Divergent and God’s Not Dead continue to run ahead of our weekend forecast and each film’s total domestic projection has been upgraded.

Weekend 14: April 4-6, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis [92.5] 94.0 96.2 34.6–24.5 213
Noah Par [19.4] 16.5 17.0 4.9–7.3 112
Divergent LG/Sum [12.4] 13.2 13.0 4.2–5.8 145
God’s Not Dead Free [6.9] 8.0 7.7 2.2–3.0 50
Grand Budapest Hotel FoxS [6.1] 6.4 6.3 1.8–2.7 55
Muppets Most Wanted Dis [6.5] 6.3 6.3 1.5–2.9 60
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox/DWA [5.6] 5.2 5.3 1.3–2.3 118
Sabotage OpenR [2.0] 1.8 1.9 .57–.81 9
Non-Stop Uni [2.2] 1.9 1.8 .56–.82 93
Need for Speed Uni [2.3] 1.8 1.8 .53–.81 43
300: Rise of an Empire WB [2.0] 1.4 .43–.63 108
Cesar Chavez LG/Sum [2.0] .98 6

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like $160 million total Friday-Sunday, up 42% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 27% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 14 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $160 Captain America: The Winter Soldier $96.2
2013 $127 Evil Dead $25.8, Jurassic Park 3D $18.6
2012 $117 American Reunion $21.5, Titanic 3D $17.3
2011 $103 Hanna $12.4, Arthur $12.2, Soul Surfer $10.6, Your Highness $9.4
2010 $119 Date Night $25.2
Avg 2010-13 $113

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.