Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #16 of 2014 now looks like $126 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up $4 million from yesterday’s estimate and now 12% above the average for this weekend the past few years.
Opening at 2,417 theaters Wednesday (with $7.0 million across Wednesday and Thursday), Heaven Is for Real from Sony grossed $7.8 million Friday and $8.3 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $21.5 million opening weekend (above our $16.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $8,900 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Through Sunday the film’s five-day total should stand at $28.5 million. Critical sentiment is mediocre (53% positive overall and 47% positive with top critics). Heaven Is for Real is headed for $73 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,455 theaters Friday, Transcendence from Warner Brothers grossed a weak $4.8 million Friday and a terrible $3.8 million Saturday, now headed for a $11.2 million opening weekend (well below our $21.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a very low three-day average of $3,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is not kind (19% positive overall and 17% positive with top critics). Transcendence is headed for a disastrous $22 million total domestic.
Opening at 2,310 theaters Friday, A Haunted House 2 from Open Road Films grossed $4.0 million Friday and $3.0 million Saturday, now pacing toward a $9.1 million opening weekend (well below our $13.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $3,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is savage (7% positive overall and 17% positive with top critics). A Haunted House 2 is headed for $20 million total domestic.
Opening at 1,720 theaters Friday, Bears from Disney grossed $2.3 million Friday and only $1.6 million Saturday, putting the DisneyNature film on track toward a $4.8 million opening weekend (below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a pathetic three-day average of $2,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very positive (88% positive overall and 85% positive with top critics). Bears is headed for $23 million total domestic.
Captain America: The Winter Soldier holds on to the top spot this weekend and has been upgraded again to an estimated $268 million total domestic.
| Weekend 16: April 18-20, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Captain America: The Winter Soldier | Dis | [23.0] | 24.6 | 26.6 | 9.6–10.4 | 268 | |
| Rio 2 | Fox | [23.4] | 23.2 | 22.5 | 9.2–8.2 | 132 | |
| Heaven Is For Real | Sony | [16.0] | 18.8 | 21.5 | 7.8–8.3 | 73 | |
| Transcendence | WB | [21.0] | 12.2 | 11.2 | 4.8–3.8 | 22 | |
| A Haunted House 2 | OpenR | [13.5] | 8.6 | 9.1 | 4.0–3.0 | 20 | |
| Draft Day | LG/Sum | [6.0] | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.1–2.3 | 35 | |
| Divergent | LG/Sum | [4.6] | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.2–2.3 | 150 | |
| Oculus | Rel | [5.8] | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.0–2.0 | 32 | |
| Noah | Par | [4.0] | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.7–1.9 | 104 | |
| God’s Not Dead | Free | [3.6] | 3.9 | 4.8 | 1.7–1.7 | 61 | |
| Bears | Dis | [6.5] | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.3–1.6 | 23 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $126 million total Friday-Sunday, up 12% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 25% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 16 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $126 | Heaven Is for Real $21.5, Transcendence $11.2, A Haunted House $9.1, Bears $4.8 | |
| 2013 | $100 | Oblivion $37.1 | |
| 2012 | $126 | Think Like a Man $33.6, The Lucky One $22.5, Chimpanzee $10.7 | |
| 2011 | $121 | TP’s Madae’s Big Happy Family $25.1, Water for Elephants $16.8, African Cats $6.0 | |
| 2010 | $90 | The Back-Up Plan $12.2, The Losers $9.4, Oceans $6.1 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $112 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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