April 27, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates APRIL 25-27

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #17 of 2014 looks like $102 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, better than the disaster of a weekend this time last year but still 8% below the norm for this weekend over the last several years.  

Opening at 3,204 theaters Friday, The Other Woman from Fox grossed $9.3 million Friday and $9.7 million Saturday, putting the film on track for a $24.7 million opening weekend (above our $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a decent three-day average of $7,700 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is dismissive (24% positive overall and 25% positive with top critics). The Other Woman is headed for $78 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,647 theaters Friday, Brick Mansions from Relativity grossed $3.9 million Friday and $3.6 million Saturday and is headed for a $9.6 million opening weekend (almost exactly our $9.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a weak three-day average of $3,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is weak (30% positive overall and 32% positive with top critics). Brick Mansions is headed for maybe $26 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,027 theaters Friday, The Quiet Ones from Open Road Films grossed a paltry $1.5 million Friday and $1.6 million Saturday, now pacing toward a $4.0 million opening weekend (well below our $6.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a terrible three-day average of $1,970 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (40% positive overall but only 18% positive with top critics). The Quiet Ones is headed for about $6 million total domestic after a very rapid theater count reduction starting early next week.

Captain America: The Winter Soldier is back in control as the top holdover, as Heaven Is for Real is adjusted down closer to the level for Rio 2 this weekend.

Weekend 17: April 25-27, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Other Woman Fox [17.5] 25.0 24.7 9.3–9.7 78
Captain America: The Winter Soldier Dis [15.4] 15.1 16.0 4.5–7.4 261
Heaven Is For Real Sony [14.9] 15.4 13.8 4.1–5.8 88
Rio 2 Fox [13.4] 13.6 13.6 3.3–6.2 132
Brick Mansions Rel [9.5] 9.9 9.6 3.9–3.6 26
Transcendence WB [4.9] 3.9 4.1 1.3–1.8 21
The Quiet Ones LG/Sum [6.5] 3.9 4.0 1.5–1.6 6
Bears Dis [—] 3.7 3.6 1.2–1.5 24
Divergent LG/Sum [3.4] 3.5 3.6 1.1–1.7 150
A Haunted House 2 OpenR [3.9] 2.8 3.3 .97–1.4 16
God’s Not Dead Free [—] 2.8 2.8 .83–1.1 62
Draft Day LG/Sum [—] 2.8 2.8 .84–1.3 32

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $102 million total Friday-Sunday, down 8% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but up 24% from the really weak total the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 17 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $102 The Other Woman $24.7 Brick Mansions $9.6, The Quiet Ones $4.0
2013 $82 Pain and Gain $20.2, The Big Wedding $7.6
2012 $97 Pirates: Band of Misfits! $11.1, Five-Year Engagement $10.6, Safe $7.9, The Raven $7.3
2011 $145 Fast Five $86.2, Prom $4.7, Hoodwinked Too! $4.1
2010 $92 A Nightmare on Elm Street $32.9, Furry Vengeance $6.6
Avg 2010-13 $111

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.