August 19, 2012


Although Expendables 2 did not open as big as we forecast earlier in the week, the weekend was not bad for a third weekend in August.   


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: The Expendables 2 ($87 million), ParaNorman ($69 million), Sparkle ($32 million) and The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($37 million).

Second week films:  The Bourne Idenity ($110 million, down somewhat from last week’s initial estimate), The Campaign ($86 million, also down from last week) and Hope Springs ($61 million, down from $69 million last week).

Third week films: Total Recall ($56 million, even with last week) and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($51 million, even with last week).

Fifth week films:  The Dark Knight Rises ($442 million, down a touch from last week’s estimate).

Weekend 33: August 17-19, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
The Expendables 2 LG 28.8 87
Bourne Legacy Uni -55% 17.0 110
ParaNorman Foc/ Uni 14.0 69
The Campaign WB -50% 13.4 86
Sparkle Tri/ Sony 12.0 32
Dark Knight Rises WB -41% 11.1 442
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis 10.9 37
Hope Springs Sony -38% 9.1 61
Diary of Wimpy Kid: Dog Days Fox -52% 3.8 51
Total Recall Sony -56% 3.5 56
Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox -54% 2.9 160
Ted Uni -50% 1.6 226


Expendables Track — Lionsgate ($ millions)
Critics Positive Opening Weekend  Domestic Total  Overseas Total Worldwide Total
The Expendables 2 8.17.2012 67% 28.8 87-est  n/a n/a
The Expendables 8.13.2010 41% 34.8 103.1 171.4 274.5

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $128 million total Friday-Sunday, not as much as we forecast Wednesday but still up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year and up 23% from the average for this weekend the past four years.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #33 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $128 Expendables 2 $29, ParaNorman $14, Sparkle $12, Odd Life Tim Green $11
2011 $106 Spy Kids All Time World $12, Conan the Barbarian $10, Fright Night $8
2010 $110 Vampires Suck $12, Lottery Ticket $11, Piranha 3D $10
2009 $112 Inglorious Basterds $38, Shorts $6
2008 $89 House Bunny $14, Death Race $13, The Longshots $4
Avg 2008-11 $104

Total Box Office Volume

Opening wide next weekend are Hit & Run from Open Road Films (action comedy written by, co-directed by and starring Dax Shepard of NBC’s Parenthood, opening early on Wednesday), Premium Rush from Sony (action thriller starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt as one seriously unlucky bike messenger) and The Apparition from Warner Brothers (a thriller from now-released producer Joel Silver at fewer than 1,000 theaters).  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  Colombiana  ($10.4 million opening weekend), Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark ($8.5 million) and Our Idiot Brother ($7.0 million).

International grosses will be updated later today.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.