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August 26, 2012
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES August 24-26

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Saturday was generally stronger than anticipated yesterday — the weekend now looks like $83 million instead of $77 million for the top 12 films.   But the rank order is basically same, The Expendables 2 remains the only film above $10 million for the weekend.  

 

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates for films opening wide this weekend: 2016 Obama’s America ($25 million), Premium Rush ($20 million), Hit and Run ($12 million) and The Apparition ($7 million).

Second week films:  The Expendables 2 ($86 million, down a nominal $1 million from last week’s initial estimate), ParaNorman ($53 million, down substantially from $69 million last week), Sparkle ($28 million, down from $32 million last week) and The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($44 million, up $7 million from last week’s estimate).

Third week films:  The Bourne Idenity ($108 million, down a few million from the initial estimate), The Campaign ($85 million, steady with last week) and Hope Springs ($62 million, about the same as last week).

Fourth week films: Total Recall ($57 million, up $1 million from last week) and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($49 million, down a few million from last week).

Weekend 34: August 24-29, 2012 ($ millions)
vs Last Wknd Wknd Studio Proj. Showbuzz Domestic Final
The Expendables 2 LG -53% 13.5 86
Bourne Legacy Uni -46% 9.3 108
ParaNorman Foc/ Uni -39% 8.5 53
The Campaign WB -43% 7.4 85
Dark Knight Rises WB -35% 7.2 442
Odd Life of Timothy Green Dis -34% 7.1 44
Premium Rush Sony 6.3 20
2016 Obama’s America Rocky Mtn +401% 6.2 25
Hope Springs Sony -34% 6.0 62
Hit and Run Open Road 4.7 12
Sparkle Sony -64% 4.2 28
The Apparition WB 2.9 7

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $83 million total Friday-Sunday, a little better than it appeared yesterday but still down 6% from the average for this weekend the past four years but up 12% from last year’s terrible number.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #34 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $83 Premium Rush $6.3, 2016 Obama’s America $6.2, Hit and Run $4.7
2011 $75 Colombiana $10, Don’t Be Afraid of Dark $8, Our Idiot Brother $7
2010 $95 Takers $20, Last Exorcism $20, Avatar Special Edition $4
2009 $110 Final Destination $27, Halloween 2 $16, Taking Woodstock $3
2008 $74 Babylon A.D. $9, Traitor $8, Disaster Movie $6
Avg 2008-11 $88

Opening Next Week

Opening wide next weekend are The Possession from Lionsgate (horror from producer Sam Raimi and featuring Kyra Sedgwick), Lawless from Weinstein Company (crime drama and Prohibition-era period piece starring Shia LaBeouf and Tom Hardy) and Oggieloves In the BIG Balloon Adventure from Kenn Viselman Presents (a family film from the man who brought Teletubbies and Thomas & Friends to America — gee, thanks, Kenn!).  The first film opens Friday, while the latter two open Wednesday.  These films will be compared to the following openers from the same weekend last year:  The Debt  ($9.9 million opening weekend and $11.8 million Wednesday-Sunday), Apollo 18 ($8.7 million) and Shark Night 3D ($8.4 million).

International grosses will be updated later today.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.