August 31, 2014

Weekend Studio Estimates AUGUST 29-31

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #35 of 2014 looks like $86 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, now 1% above the norm for this weekend ($85 million) but 8% below this weekend last year (detailed track below).

Opening at 2,639 theaters, As Above/So Below from Universal grossed $3.2 million Friday and $2.8 million Saturday, now on track for an $8.3 million opening three-day weekend (below our $10.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a soft $3,100 per theater for the weekend (compared to the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is very weak (23% positive overall and only 11% positive with top critics). As Above/So Below is now headed for $15 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,776 theaters, The November Man from Relativity grossed $2.2 million Friday and $2.8 million Saturday, now on track for a $7.7 million opening weekend (somewhat below our $8.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a really weak $2,800 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is soft (36% positive overall and 38% positive with top critics). The November Man is headed for $24 million total domestic.

Guardians of the Galaxy is headed for $16.3 million this weekend (down 5% from last weekend and very close to our $16.5 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Guardians of the Galaxy has been adjusted up yet again to $315 million.  Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles is headed for $11.8 million this weekend (down 30% from last weekend and below our $15.3 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for TMNT has been adjusted to $186 million.   If I Stay is headed for $9.3 million this weekend (down 41% from last weekend and above our $8.4 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for If I Stay has been adjusted up to $52 million.  Let’s Be Cops is headed for $8.2 million this weekend (down 24% from last weekend and near our $8.7 million forecast).  The total domestic outlook for Let’s Be Cops has been adjusted up slightly to $75 million 

In limited release, Cantinflas from Lionsgate opened with an estimated $6,872 per theater at 382 theaters for $2,625,000 Friday-Sunday.  Much less successful, the re-issue of Ghostbusters from Sony averaged a sad $2,105 for the weekend at 784 theaters for $1,650,000 Friday-Sunday.         

Weekend 35: August 29-31, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri–Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis [16.5] 16.3 16.3 3.8–6.2 315
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Par [15.3] 11.1 11.8 2.7–4.5 186
If I Stay WB [8.4] 9.4 9.3 2.6–3.4 52
As Above/So Below Uni [10.5] 9.3 8.3 3.2–2.8 15
Let’s Be Cops Fox [8.7] 8.2 8.2 2.0–3.0 75
The November Man Rel [8.5] 8.0 7.7 2.2–2.8 24
When the Game Stands Tall Sony [6.4] 5.6 5.7 1.4–2.1 27
The Giver Weins [4.6] 4.9 5.2 1.3–1.9 40
The Hundred-Foot Journey Dis [5.2] 4.9 4.6 1.1–1.8 50
The Expendables 3 LG/Sum [4.1] 3.5 3.5 .85–1.3 38

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $86 million total Friday-Sunday, 1% above the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 8% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 35 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $86 As Above/So Below $8.3, The November Man $7.7
2013 $93 One Direction: This Is Us $15.8, Instructions Not Included $7.8, Getaway $4.5
2012 $86 The Possession $17.7, Lawless $10.0, Oogieloves $0.4
2011 $82 The Debt $9.9, Apollo 18 $8.7, Shark Night 3D $8.4
2010 $81 Takers $20.5, The Last Exorcism $20.4
Avg 2010-13 $85

Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.