>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 will drop another 59% this weekend but remain at #1, and its final domestic estimate has been downgraded to $269 million. The Muppets dropped a very surprising 62%, and its final domestic estimate has been taken down below $100 million. Overall box office this weekend is running about 4% below the same weekend last year — an expected very soft weekend is even weaker than predicted.
Among the second week films, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 has been downgraded ($269 million — also see complete Twilight film track below), while Happy Feet Two had been taken down again ($67 million).
December 2-4, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 (Sum) $16.9 -59% $269-
The Muppets (Dis) $11.2 -62% $ 86-
Hugo (Par) $ 7.6 -33% $ 49
Arthur Christmas (Sony) $ 7.3 -39% $ 47
Happy Feet Two (WB) $ 6.0 -55% $ 67-
Jack and Jill (Sony) $ 5.5 -45% $ 71
The Descendants (Fox) $ 5.2 -29% $ 35
Immortals (Rel) $ 4.4 -50% $ 82
Tower Heist (Uni) $ 4.1 -42% $ 80
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $ 3.1 -59% $144-
J. Edgar (WB) $ 2.4 -52% $ 37
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Twilight Saga Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Twilight 11.21.2008 $ 69.6 $192.8 $199.8
Twilight New Moon 11.20.2009 $142.8 $296.6 $413.2
Twilight Eclipse 6.30.2010 $ 64.8 $300.5 $397.9
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $75 million total Friday-Sunday, down 4% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #48
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $ 75 none
2010 $ 78 Warrior’s Way $3
2009 $ 91 Brothers $9.5, Armored $6.5, Everybody’s Fine $4
2008 $ 77 Punisher:War Zone $4, Cadillac Records $3
2007 $ 73 Golden Compass $26
2007-10
Avg $ 80
Next Weekend
Next weekend, New Year’s Eve (romantic comedy from Garry Marshall and Warner Brothers) and The Sitter (R-rated comedy from 20th Century Fox starring Jonah Hill) open. These film will be compared to The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($24 million opening weekend) and The Tourist ($16.5 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
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