Weekend Studio Estimates DECEMBER 20-22

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Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #51 of 2013 now looks like $137 million for the top 12 films from Friday-Sunday, up substantially from the same weekend last year (see comparisons to previous years at the bottom).  

Opening at 3,507 theaters Wednesday, Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues from Paramount grossed $13.2 million before Friday ($8.1 Wednesday and $5.1 Thursday) and another $8.7 million Friday and $9.6 million Saturday, putting the sequel on track for a $26.8 million opening three-day weekend (below our $37.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $7,600 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Through Sunday, Anchorman 2 should total $42 million. Critical sentiment is positive (75% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 71% positive with top critics). With many consecutive high-volume box office days ahead in the next few weeks, Anchorman 2 is headed for maybe $146 million total domestic, well above the $85.3 million domestic for Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy (which opened July 9-11, 2004 with $28.4 million).

Opening at 2,507 theaters Friday, American Hustle from Sony grossed $6.5 million Friday and $7.1 million Saturday, now on track for a $19.1 million opening weekend (above our $16.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward an above par three-day average of $7,600 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is ecstatic (94% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 95% positive with top critics). American Hustle is headed for $102 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,110 theaters Friday, Saving Mr. Banks from Disney grossed $3.1 million Friday and $3.4 million Saturday, now on track for a $9.3 million opening weekend (still below our $11.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a wobbly three-day average of $4,400 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is supportive (80% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 74% positive with top critics). Saving Mr. Banks is headed for $64 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,231 theaters Friday, Walking with Dinosaurs from Fox grossed $2.2 million Friday and $2.8 million Saturday, now on track for a $7.3 million opening weekend (below our $8.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a woeful three-day average of $2,200 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is dismissive (28% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 19% positive with top critics). Walking with Dinosaurs is headed for maybe $34 million total domestic.

The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug is on track to hit our second weekend forecast and will hold on to the #1 spot.  Updated domestic total for Hobbit 2: $211 million.  Frozen 3D has been adjusted up to a $233 million domestic total thanks to another solid weekend.  The Hunger Games: Catching Fire is holding relatively steady at a $403 million domestic total, while Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas has been upgraded somewhat to $56 million.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Limited Release

Dhoom 3 an action thriller from India opened at 236 theaters Friday and is headed for a $14,000 weekend average per theater (a $3.3 million opening weekend that no one saw coming).

Total Box Office Volume