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January 1, 2012
 

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES December 30-January 1

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like $151 million, up 2% from last year.  Saturday business (impacted by New Year’s Eve) was not as rough as expected and the studio projections are now fairly rosy, as they are expecting a very strong Sunday (more on that below).  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally much stronger than reported yesterday.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the recent openers are headed for:  Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($110 million), War Horse ($95 million), Adventures of Tintin ($90 million), We Bought a Zoo ($90 million) and The Darkest Hour ($31 million).

In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($130 million) and Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol ($220 million) have each been adjusted up.

Business was especially brisk for War Horse on Saturday, with the Steven Spielberg film collecting $5.6 million New Year’s Eve, up 20% from the $4.7 million Friday.  Most films, in contrast, declined 15-25% from Friday to Saturday, not bad considering New Year’s parties cut significantly into the Saturday box office.




Dec 30 2011-Jan 1 2012              Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Mission: Impossible 4     (Par)     $31.3   + 6%      $220
Sherlock Holmes 2          (WB)     $22.1   + 9%      $190
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox)     $18.3   +45%      $130
War Horse              (DW/Dis)     $16.9   +125%     $ 95
Girl Dragon Tattoo       (Sony)     $16.3   +28%      $110
We Bought a Zoo           (Fox)     $14.3   +53%      $ 90
Adventures of Tintin   (DW/Dis)     $12.0   +24%      $ 90
New Year’s Eve          (WB/NL)     $ 6.7   +103%     $ 50 
Darkest Hour              (Sum)     $ 4.3   +43%      $ 31
The Descendants           (Fox)     $ 3.7   +76%      $ 52 

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.  

Mission: Impossible Film Track      Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Mission: Impossible      5.22.1996   $ 45.4    $181.0    $276.7
Mission: Impossible II   5.24.2000   $ 57.8    $215.4    $331.0
Mission: Impossible III  5.05.2006   $ 47.7    $134.0    $263.8

Total Box Office Volume 

After a very solid New Year’s Eve Saturday, the Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #52

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $151  M:I 4 $31, Sherlock Holmes 2 $22, Alvin 3 $18 

2010  $149  Little Fockers $26, True Grit $24, TRON Legacy $19
2009  $209  Avatar $68, Sherlock Holmes $37, Alvin 2 $35

2008  $131  Marley & Me $24, Bedtime Stories $20, Benj Button $19
2007  $121  National Treasure $20, Juno $16, I Am Legend $16


2007-10
Avg   $153

HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE: Day by Day

The top 10 films on Friday grossed over $42 million collectively, a very good performance for a New Year’s Eve.  The studios are very bullish for today, Sunday, January 1, with over $53 million estimated.  That number looks achievable based on last year, but remember that January 1 fell on a Saturday in the last holiday season.  2005 provides the best comparison — Sunday, January 1 lifted 18% above Saturday, December 31.  The estimated 26% lift today from yesterday may be a touch over-stated.
 

                 DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29  $41.0 Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30  $49.6 Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31  $42.5 Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01  $53.4*Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun
Jan 02        Mon   $38.6 Sun   $20.4 Tue   $36.5 Mon


* – Estimated by Studios

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

Next Weekend 
Next weekend, 2012 kicks off with The Devil Inside from Paramount on Friday, January 6.  Last year 2011 started horribly with Season of the Witch starring the incomparable Nicolas Cage ($10.6 million opening weekend) and Country Strong ($7.3 million).  

Look for updated weekend figures Monday.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.