February 26, 2012

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES February 24-26 (Updated with Daily Totals)

>The weekend studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals and projections for Sunday) are coming in slightly stronger than the weekend numbers posted yesterday (based on Friday actuals only).  The box office volume for the top 12 films is now looking like a very good $116 million for the weekend, up 21% from last year’s weekend and up 25% from the weekend’s average for the past four years.  Act of Valor will still win the weekend, but the weekend total has been adjusted down about $1 million to $24.7 million.  Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds has been adjusted up about $1 million to a second-place $16.0 million.  The rest of the field is looking like it did yesterday at this time.  (Updated weekend numbers in the chart after the jump.)

Act of Valor was #1 both Friday and Saturday and will be #1 Sunday.  The film was front-loaded, however, with 37% of its expected weekend total coming on Friday and a similar 38% on Saturday.  The other three films opening this weekend had more typical daily distributions, about one-third of the weekend total on Friday and over 40% on Saturday (the so-called “Saturday bump” we see with most films).  Additionally, the returning films exhibit the pattern we see with holdovers: a heavier reliance on Saturday (closer to 50% of the weekend total), while a family film like Journey 2 relies more on daytime-skewed Sunday than night-time focused Friday (with the opposite the case for a date movie like The Vow).

           Domestic Box Office Estimates by Day
         (Millions $ per day & Percent of Weekend)
                   Fri 2.24   Sat 2.25   Sun 2.26   Weekend
 Opening Films
 Act of Valor      $9.05 37%  $9.48 38%  $6.17 25%  $24.70
 TP’s Good Deeds   $5.35 33%  $6.65 42%  $4.00 25%  $16.00
 Wanderlust        $2.20 33%  $2.90 44%  $1.50 23%  $ 6.60
 Gone              $1.70 34%  $2.10 42%  $1.20 24%  $ 5.00  
 Journey 2         $3.21 24%  $6.42 48%  $3.85 29%  $13.48
 Safe House        $3.20 28%  $5.10 45%  $3.10 27%  $11.40
 The Vow           $3.25 33%  $4.50 45%  $2.25 22%  $10.00
 Ghost Rider 2     $2.35 27%  $4.13 47%  $2.33 26%  $ 8.80

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the films opening wide this weekend are headed for:  Act of Valor ($68 million), Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds ($42 million), Wanderlust ($20 million) and Gone ($9 million).    

The second week movies:  Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance ($54 million, adjusted down slightly), This Means War ($51 million, up slightly) and Secret World of Arrietty ($30 million, up slightly). 

The third week movies:  The Vow ($133 million, adjusted down), Safe House ($134 million, adjusted down slightly), Journey 2: The Mysterious Island ($118 million, adjusted up again) and Star Wars: Episode 1 — The Phantom Menace in 3D ($47 million, steady).    

February 24-26                      Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Act of Valor              (Rel)     $24.7             $ 68
Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds   (LG)     $16.0             $ 42
Journey 2 Myster. Island   (WB)     $13.5   -32%      $118+
Safe House                (Uni)     $11.4   -52%      $134-
The Vow                  (Sony)     $10.0   -57%      $133-

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.