Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, weekend #29 of 2014 now looks like $135 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, -27% below the norm for this weekend and still below our forecast ($147 million). This is the fifth really sub-par weekend in a row.
Opening at 2,806 theaters, The Purge: Anarchy from Universal grossed $13.0 million Friday and $9.0 million Saturday, now on track for a $28.4 million opening weekend (close to our $29.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $10,100 per theater for the weekend (well above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is right down the middle (53% positive overall and 48% positive with top critics). The Purge: Anarchy is headed for $77 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,826 theaters, Planes: Fire & Rescue from Disney grossed $6.3 million Friday and $6.6 million Saturday, now on track for an $18.0 million opening weekend (below our $25.0 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,700 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is mediocre (44% positive overall and 50% positive with top critics). Planes: Fire & Rescue is headed for $70 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,062 theaters, Sex Tape from Sony grossed $5.7 million through Friday and $5.3 million Saturday, now on track for a $15.0 million opening weekend (well below our $23.5 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $4,900 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is hostile (19% positive overall and an abysmal 3% positive with top critics). Sex Tape is headed for $50 million total domestic.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes is headed for $36.0 million this weekend (down 50% from last weekend and slightly above our $34.9 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has been adjusted up again to $230 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction is headed for $10.0 million this weekend (down 39% from last weekend and above our $7.5 million forecast). The total domestic outlook for the latest Transformers has been adjusted to $252 million. Tammy is headed for $7.6 million this weekend (down 39% from last weekend and a touch above our $7.1 million forecast). The total domestic projection for Tammy has been adjusted up slightly to $92 million.
| Weekend 29: July 18-20, 2014 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri–Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | [34.9] | 34.5 | 36.0 | 10.4–14.7 | 230 | |
| The Purge: Anarchy | Uni | [29.5] | 26.5 | 28.4 | 13.0–9.0 | 77 | |
| Planes: Fire & Rescue | Dis | [25.0] | 17.0 | 18.0 | 6.3–6.6 | 70 | |
| Sex Tape | Sony | [23.5] | 16.5 | 15.0 | 5.7–5.3 | 50 | |
| Transformers: Age of Extinction | Par | [7.5] | 9.0 | 10.0 | 2.8–4.1 | 252 | |
| Tammy | WB | [7.1] | 7.0 | 7.6 | 2.3–3.1 | 92 | |
| 22 Jump Street | Sony | [4.1] | 4.5 | 4.7 | 1.4–1.9 | 198 | |
| How to Train Your Dragon 2 | Fox | [3.9] | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.1–1.6 | 176 | |
| Earth to Echo | Rel | [3.4] | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.0–1.3 | 42 | |
| Maleficent | Dis | [2.8] | 3.2 | 3.3 | .95–1.4 | 239 | |
| Begin Again | Weins | [—] | 2.5 | 2.8 | .74–1.2 | 19 | |
| America | LG/Sum | [—] | 1.7 | 1.7 | .51–.69 | 15 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $135 million total Friday-Sunday, a little better than yesterday’s estimate ($129 million) but still down 27% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 26% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND 29 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2014 | $135 | The Purge: Anarchy $28.4, Planes: Fire & Rescue $18.0, Sex Tape $15.5 | |
| 2013 | $181 | The Conjuring $41.9, Turbo $21.3, Red 2 $18.0, R.I.P.D. $12.7 | |
| 2012 | $224 | The Dark Knight Rises $160.9 | |
| 2011 | $181 | Captain America: The First Avenger $65.1, Friends with Benefits $18.6 | |
| 2010 | $155 | Inception $62.8, The Sorcerer’s Apprentice $17.6 | |
| Avg 2010-13 | $185 | ||
Check back later for the Worldwide Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.
About the Author
