Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #29 of 2013 looks like a decent $181 million for the top 12 films, up slightly from yesterday’s estimate and now up 3% from the average for this weekend over the past several years (but still down significantly from last year’s same weekend which was dominated by the opening of The Dark Knight Rises).
Opening at 2,903 theaters Friday, The Conjuring from Warner Brothers grossed $17.0 million on Friday and $14.0 million Saturday, now on track for a $41.5 million opening weekend (blowing past the $31 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $14,300 per theater for the weekend (almost three times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is filled with love (especially for a horror film): fully 85% positive overall at RottenTomatoes (with top critics a similar 84% positive). The Conjuring is headed for $130 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,806 theaters Wednesday, Turbo from 20th Century Fox and DreamWorks Animation grossed $6.5 million on Friday and $8.4 million Saturday, now on track for a $21.5 million opening Friday-Sunday (somewhat below the $24.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging a perfectly mediocre $5,600 per theater for the weekend. Including the $9.7 million from the Wednesday-Thursday preview, Turbo should total $31.2 through Sunday for its first five days. Critical sentiment for Turbo is actually decent: 66% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics (and top critics an even better 76% positive). Turbo is headed for maybe $97 million total domestic.
Opening at 3,016 theaters Friday, Red 2 from Summit grossed $6.35 million on Friday and $6.89 million Saturday, now on track for an $18.5 million opening weekend (also somewhat below the $22.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $6,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment for Red 2 is not supportive: 40% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics (and top critics an even snarkier 29% positive). Red 2 is headed for maybe $63 million total domestic, $90.4 million domestic for Red (released October 15, 2010). May this series rest in peace.
Opening at 2,852 theaters Friday, R.I.P.D. from Universal grossed $4.8 million on Friday and $4.6 million Saturday, now on track for a $12.8 million opening weekend (a shade below the $14.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging a lifeless $4,500 per theater for the weekend. Critics hate R.I.P.D.: 12% positive at RottenTomatoes. (Not enough top critics have reviewed it to break out their sentiment.) R.I.P.D. is headed for $28 million total domestic.
Another low decline for Despicable Me 2 (-43% decline in its third weekend), pushing the sequel to almost $360 million for its estimated domestic total.
| Weekend 29: July 19-21, 2013 | ($ millions) | ||||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Weekend Studio Estimate | Actual Fri-Sat Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| The Conjuring | WB | [31.0] | 40.0 | 41.5 | 17.0–14.0 | 130 | |
| Despicable Me 2 | Uni | [23.5] | 24.4 | 25.1 | 7.5–10.0 | 359 | |
| Turbo | Fox/DWA | [24.5] | 21.0 | 21.5 | 6.5–8.4 | 97 | |
| Grown Ups 2 | Sony | [17.8] | 19.5 | 20.0 | 6.4–7.8 | 125 | |
| Red 2 | Summit | [22.5] | 18.0 | 18.5 | 6.3–7.8 | 63 | |
| Pacific Rim | WB | [17.2] | 15.3 | 15.9 | 4.7–6.4 | 105 | |
| R.I.P.D. | Uni | [14.5] | 12.2 | 12.8 | 4.8–4.6 | 28 | |
| The Heat | Fox | [8.2] | 9.3 | 9.3 | 2.8–3.8 | 161 | |
| World War Z | Par | [4.5] | 5.1 | 5.2 | 1.5–2.1 | 204 | |
| Monsters University | Dis | [5.8] | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.5–2.0 | 273 | |
| The Lone Ranger | Dis | [5.2] | 4.3 | 4.3 | 1.3–1.7 | 93 | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $181 million total Friday-Sunday, up 3% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend but down 19% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #29 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $181 | The Conjuring $41.5, Turbo $21.5, Red 2 $18.5, R.I.P.D. $12.8 | |
| 2012 | $224 | The Dark Knight $160.9 | |
| 2011 | $181 | Captain America: The First Avenger $65.1, Friends with Benefits $18.6 | |
| 2010 | $155 | Salt $36.0, Ramona and Beezus $7.8 | |
| 2009 | $142 | G-Force $31.7, The Ugly Truth $27.6, Orphan $12.9 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $175 | ||
Check back later for the updated Studio Scorecard and International Box Office report.
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