Articles

July 7, 2013
 

Weekend Studio Estimates JULY 5-7

Based on Friday’s and Saturday’s grosses, Weekend #27 of 2013 still looks like a terrific $223 million for the top 12 films, up sharply from the comparable weekend in recent years. Not even The Lone Ranger could derail a hot summer box office, which is up 30% or more in three of the last four weekends.

Opening at 3,997 theaters Wednesday, Despicable Me 2 from Universal grossed $30.2 million on Friday and $29.6 million Saturday, now on track for an $82.5 million opening weekend (comfortably above the $78 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $20,600 per theater for the weekend (almost four times above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). With $34.3 million Wednesday and $24.5 million Thursday, Despicable Me 2 is headed toward a five-day $142 million total. Critical sentiment is positive: 75% positive overall at RottenTomatoes (with top critics an even more enthusiastic 82% positive). Despicable Me 2 is headed for $291 million total domestic.

Opening at 3,904 theaters Wednesday, The Lone Ranger from Disney grossed $10.7 million on Friday and $10.8 million Saturday, now headed for a soft $29.4 million opening weekend (a touch below the $32 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging only $7,500 per theater for the weekend. With a puny $9.6 million Wednesday and $9.9 million Thursday, The Lone Ranger should total a woeful $49 million its first five days. Critical sentiment is really weak: 24% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics (with top critics hostile at 11% positive). The Lone Ranger is headed for maybe $93 million total domestic.

Opening at 876 theaters Wednesday, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain from Summit grossed $3.7 million on Friday and $3.6 million Saturday, now on track for a solid $10.1 million opening weekend (well above the $7.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $11,500 per theater for the weekend. With $4.8 million Wednesday and $2.6 million Thursday, Kevin Hart should total $17 Wednesday-Sunday. Critics are an encouraging 70% positive (with a limited number of reviews). Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is headed for $36 million total domestic.

Weekend 27: July 5-7, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Weekend Studio Estimate Actual Fri-Sat Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Despicable Me 2 Uni [78.0] 80.5 82.5 30.2–29.6 291
The Lone Ranger Dis [32.0] 30.5 29.4 10.7–10.8 93
The Heat Fox [22.3] 24.5 25.0 8.6–9.3 154
Monsters University Dis [23.8] 20.0 19.6 7.1–7.1 295
World War Z Par [15.5] 18.5 18.2 6.4–6.7 210
White House Down Sony [12.5] 13.5 13.5 4.6–5.1 84
Man of Steel WB [11.6] 11.7 11.4 3.9–4.3 301
Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain Summit [7.5] 10.0 10.1 3.7–3.6 36
This Is the End Sony [5.6] 5.5 5.8 2.0–2.1 105
Now You See Me Summit [3.8] 2.9 2.8 .96–1.1 122

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

 

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $223 million total Friday-Sunday, up 38% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 23% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND #27 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $223 Despicable Me 2 $80.5, The Lone Ranger $30.5, Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain $10
2012 $182 Amazing Spider-Man $62.0, Savages $16.0, Katy Perry: Part of Me $7.1
2011 $146 Horrible Bosses $28.3, Zookeeper $20.1
2010 $184 Despicable Me $56.4, Predators $24.8
2009 $135 Bruno $30.6, I Love You Beth Cooper $4.9
Avg 2009-12 $162

Check back later today for the Studio Scorecard and the International Box Office report.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.