June 12, 2011

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES JUNE 10-12: Super 8 Above Forecast But Not As High As Reported Yesterday

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Super 8 now looks like a $37 million opening weekend based on Friday and Saturday results.  The weekend top 12 should be down 6% from 2010.   

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Super 8 should finish its domestic run with $109 million.  X-Men: First Class has been downgraded a touch to $163 million.  The Hangover Part II has been downgraded again to $254 million.  Kung Fu Panda 2 is now looking like $171 million domestic.  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides is now looking like a $234 million final, while Bridesmaids has been upgraded again to $156 million.  

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, X-Men: First Class opened with $10,950 per theater at 3,379 theaters ($37.0 million for Friday-Sunday).  Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer opened with a sad $2,483 at 2,524 theaters ($6.3 million).  That will be the last time we have to talk about that lame title.  In its fourth week but first wide release week, Midnight in Paris made $6.1 million — $6,511 per theater at 944 theaters.  Tree of Life (third week) still has impressive per theater numbers ($18,620 at 47 locations) and has grossed $2.4 million to date.  

June 10-12, 2011                    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Super 8                   (Par)     $37.0             $109
X-Men: First Class        (Fox)     $25.0   -55%      $163
The Hangover Part II       (WB)     $18.5   -41%      $254
Kung Fu Panda 2        (Par/DW)     $16.6   -30%      $171
Pirates On Stranger Tides (Dis)     $10.8   -40%      $234
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $10.2   -16%      $156++
Judy Moody Not Bummer     (Rel)     $ 6.3   -56%      $ 13
Midnight in Paris        (Sony)     $ 6.1   +122%     $ 38
Thor                      (Par)     $ 2.4   -44%      $182
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $ 1.7   -46%      $212

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the “studio projection” for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film’s complete run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend should be around $136 million, down 6% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #23
2011  $136  (-8
% vs 2007-10 average; -6% vs 2010) 

Avg   $148 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $145  Karate Kid $56, A-Team $26

2009  $132  Taking of Pelham 123 $23, Imagine That $5.5
2008  $176  Incredible Hulk $55, The Happening $30
2007  $140  Fantastic Four 2 $58, Nancy Drew $7

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Green Lantern from Warner Brothers and Mr Popper’s Penguins from Fox.  Those movies will be compared to Toy Story 3 ($110 million opening weekend) and Jonah Hex ($5.4 million)

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers). 

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.